Caulfield Race 8: BMW Caulfield Cup (2400 metres)
Group 1 Handicap
The lay of the land
The rail’s out to the six metres which usually suits those up on the speed. The track should play perfectly with no more rain before Saturday.
One interesting factor will be the wind – it looks like being a northerly which will blow in over the grandstand and hit the field, so they’re going to want a bit of cover down the side of the track.
The speed story
The long shot Go Dreaming should kick up from the inside and lead. The import Scottish looks to lead most races and so should go forward, along with Tally and Jameka. Big Memory will be thereabouts as well.
There can always be a couple of surprises here, as it’s only 350 metres to the first turn and they want to get sorted, which can cause a few to make a run at the front where they wouldn’t normally.
In the mix
I have to say, for a $3 million race this does stack up pretty poorly. There are horses coming in from some average races and formlines. Combine that with number of internationals coming in and you have a hard race to judge! Nevertheless…
Sir John Hawkwood (Thompson / Spriggs) is going very well. It’s had two runs for Thompson and ran a beautiful race winning the The Metropolitan a couple of weeks back, and should be up somewhere near the speed here. Sacred Master (Waller / Berry) comes through the same formline.
I thought Preferment (Waller / Bowman) went fair in the Turnbull behind Hartnell, however it’s never been to Caulfield before. Combine that with the 57kgs and he might be one to avoid here.
I think the run of Tally (O’Shea / Avdulla) in the Turnbull was underrated, he didn’t get much cover and ran on decently. This will be his fourth run in and he should improve.
The run of Jameka (Maher / Hall) there is the obvious standout and makes her deserved favourite, if a little short for mine.
I also like Real Love (Weir / Williams), who ran to peak rating winning at the Valley last start. She’s a good chance here.
I’ve been quite hard on Big Memory (McEvoy / Parnham) and still think he’s a chance here. He was very good over this same course last start and this isn’t the highest quality field. Include.
Pemberley (Maher / Allen) also ran well there, but probably gets a bit far back here.
The internationals are of course hard to judge, so we’re relying a fair bit on the official handicapper. However I also give Exospheric (Freedman / Oliver) and Scottish (Appleby / McEvoy) a bit extra due to the quality local jockey factor. The latter in particular looks to be a fighter and should box on.
My concern with Sir Isaac Newton (O’Brien / O’Donoghue), having watched a few of his races, is he often tends to miss the start. That can be critical with this course, and in unfamiliar surrounds in a busy field (and in front of a big crowd) he may fizz up a little.
Articus (Wohler / Purton) is off a spell and disappointed last run, where he had every chance and was run down. He’s changed trainers however which is an unknown.
Put a line through…
Go Dreaming (Kluske / Mallyon) is the fairytale that’s being talked about, but unfortunately it doesn’t look like having a chance here.
I also don’t think Our Ivanhowe (Freedman / Dunn), Tarzino (Price / Newitt) or Almoonqith (Hayes & Dabernig / Walker) are going well at all, and I wouldn’t be having them.
Set Square (Maher / Dee) isn’t going terribly, but has drawn very poorly here which probably makes it too big a task.
I’m with the market and have Jameka on top, however I think it’s a bit short at the moment and should get out a little.
It can be hard to find value in these big races. Punters have been betting into them for so long already that any gaps quickly get closed up. But based on the current market, I think Sir John Hawkwood and Tally are going better than rated, and are more than capable of at least filling a place should they get a decent run at it.
Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over the past fifteen years. Our Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.