The Caulfield Carnival kicks off on Saturday with a massive Guineas Day card featuring four Group 1 events.  Our Melbourne analyst Trevor Lawson give us his thoughts on the main race.

Caulfield Race 8: Ladbrokes Caulfield Guineas (1600 metres)
Group 1 set weights, three-year-olds
$1,000,000

The lay of the land

The track really should play perfectly – the rail is in the true and there’s no more rain forecast before Saturday.

The speed story

Saracino will lead and has a reasonable draw, whilst Good Standing, Revolving Door and Hey Doc should come across to take up the running just behind.  From there Evacuation will be handy up the inside, and Sacred Elixir also forward of midfield.

In the mix

The Guineas Prelude is obviously a good guide to this race, and Sacred Elixir (Pike / Lane) looked very good winning a couple of weeks back, and should improve again.  Saracino (Baker & Forsman / Oliver) was a fair way back then but can be somewhat forgiven after being held right up in the straight.  There’s no such excuse for Revolving Door (McDonald / Brown) however, who had every chance and just couldn’t get the job done.

Seaburge (Hayes & Dabernig / Zahra) meanwhile should improve from the Prelude, a sparkling late run there hopefully a sign of things to come.  So Si Bon (Laing / Dee) also ran on well.

Evacuation (Waterhouse & Bott / McEvoy) is an interesting one.  It had no luck whatsoever and covered a lot of ground, for which I gave it an extra couple of lengths, but even with that it’ll have to step up yet again to threaten here.  I’m just not sure it has the class.  Wazzanme (Webb / Nolen) was a similar hard luck story.

Impending (O’Shea / McDonald) is the early favourite with good reason.  He’s improved on every run this prep, culminating in a solid win in the Stan Fox – they put the blinkers on there and it seems to suit him down to the ground.  Right behind him were Divine Prophet (Hawkes / Dunn) and Good Standing (Cummings / Bowman) – I did think Divine Prophet had every chance however, and couldn’t get the job done in the company after being unlucky prior to that in the Golden Rose.  Good Standing I expect to be stronger, and he also gets the considerable bonus that is Hugh Bowman.

Hey Doc (McEvoy / Currie) is simply flying in a flawless preparation, and I think is overs – his last win at Moonee Valley in particular was very impressive in a high rating race.  The placegetters there were Land of Plenty (Price / Newitt) and Kaching (Maher / Hall).  Both ran on well, but I think the former is drawn a little awkwardly here and the latter would like it  longer than a mile.

Put a line through…

Barbie’s Boy (Bonella / Stackhouse) is simply out of it’s depth here.

Trevor’s Tip

I like Impending.  He’s improving steadily and seems very well set for this after his solid win in Sydney.

Value

I think Hey Doc’s last run is being undervalued, and Seaburge can also put in a good one here – get them in your exotics.

Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over the past fifteen years. Our Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.