turnbull stakes
Turnbull Stakes 2021: Pro punter preview

Pro punter Trevor Lawson gives us his thoughts on the 2021 Turnbull Stakes.

This will be a bloody good race, though a lot depends on just how wet the track is come race day. There’s been some rain this week, but Flemington drains so well that it won’t be super wet in any case.  And they would’ve had it firm beforehand because they knew the rain was coming.

Like a lot of races at this time of year we’ll be much wiser afterwards… they give us a really good guide on what we can expect in the major races to come in spring.

Map-wise, I think Incentivise will lead, Mount Popa will be forward, and Verry Elleegant should be able to hold position and settle in the first four. Sir Dragonet probably goes back, along with Colette.

There are only ten horses here and from the 2000m start they have about 600 metres to sort themselves out before they start to turn. If we do get a lot of rain and they want to get off the fence by that stage of the day, then being wide won’t be a worry anyway.

It’s billed as Incentivise versus Verry Elleegant, but let’s take a quick look at each of the runners.

SIR DRAGONET put in a good run first-up. Any rain will enhance his chances. From the wide barrier he may have to give the two main chances too big a start, however.

INCENTIVISE put in a good effort first time in Melbourne with the race really not run to suit him. He should lead here and be able to dictate. If the track does deteriorate? He has won before on wet ground, albeit in weaker grade

VERRY ELLEEGANT is third-up here at 2000m. She won this race last year third run in, albeit on a good track. She should get the ground in her favour and can settle handy on the map.

PERSAN ran honestly first-up and can improve off that… he ran well second-up last prep. He is going well, but is probably outclassed here at weight-for-age.

COLETTE hasn’t been suited in her first two runs back from a spell. Gets out to her right trip here. She’ll be giving the two main chances a start which will be tough. He chances are enhanced the wetter the track is.

YOUNG WERTHER ran well first-up and can improve here second-up. I think there is a race for him this spring, but it’s probably in lesser grade than this.

EXPLOSIVE JACK, JOHNNY GET ANGRY, CHAPADA and MOUNT POPA just don’t have the class to compete here against this group.

So a verdict? On a Good 3 track I’d have Incentivise favourite ahead of Verry Elleegant. Rating it on a Soft 5 or worse, I’ve got them equal favourites with a decent gap back to Sir Dragonet, who is around $10. He’s certainly capable of winning this, but you’d think one of the two main hopes will be too good.

Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.

As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.

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