By: Gerard Daffy
Predictably Anthony Mundine has been in the media this week with his opinions on world affairs and that focus on his fight against Danny Green on Friday night has seen a surge in interest in betting. As it currently sits, Mundine is the $2.80 outsider with Danny Green at $1.45. We did mention a couple of weeks ago that Green did open at $1.80 when this was first announced, and it was all one way traffic for Green as many thought it would be too difficult for Mundine to put on the extra weight to reach the limit while still being competitive. However the bets between the pair have been split down the middle over the past week, and what has been interesting is that in the ‘method of result’ market, Mundine to win by KO has been best supported ($9-$7) ahead of Green by KO at $2.10.
While some are saying that the proposed fight between Manny Pacquiao and Jeff Horn will go ahead, in Brisbane, it appears as though neither is actually locked in concrete just yet. Having said that, there has been big interest in the bout already with Manny $1.20 into $1.18 while Horn has eased slightly from $4.50 out to $4.75. Clearly if it gets the green light we will see a huge influx of money into that market.
After a one sided Big Bash Final in Perth on Saturday night, Monday saw one of the most exciting ODI’s in recent memory. New Zealand and Australia did battle in the first of a best of three series at Eden Park, and with the Aussies sending across a diluted side, the Kiwis were backed from $2.30 into $1.90 before the match started. It all started to happen in the second innings when the Australian top order collapsed, NZ got into $1.03 with Australia at $11. The Aussies looked like they were going to pull off an unlikely win as favouritism fluctuated after each ball nearing the end, but NZ eventually got home.
Game two is in Napier today (Thursday), and Australia went in as well backed $1.75 favourites. The third and final match will be played in Hamilton on Sunday.
The upcoming tour of India has created plenty of media speculation in Australia for several months and the betting is open to win the series. Australia’s poor record in India has been discussed at length, and they open as lengthy $9 outsiders to win the best-of-four series. A drawn series is at $8.50 with India red hot favourites at $1.18. An Indian clean sweep is $3.25 but surprisingly there have been no takers yet.
SUPER BOWL 51
A multitude of factors can go into formulating a Super Bowl bet but there are a few things punters should consider before they wager on who hoists the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
For different reasons, Super Bowls featuring the New England Patriots tend to be decided by small margins regardless of whether they’re heavy favourites or underdogs. All six of the Pats’ appearances in the Brady-Belichick era have, in fact, been decided by three or four points. They enter Monday as three-point favourites, but history suggests the line matters little. Back in 2002, they upset St Louis as 14-point underdogs and six years later, in 2008, they surrendered to the Giants as 12-point top elects.
Underdogs have an outstanding recent record in the big dance. The last five Super Bowls have been won by the outsider and, while Atlanta travels to Houston as the $2.30 underdog, there are more than a few experts tipping the value way and a Falcons win. Under star quarterback Matt Ryan and wizardry coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons have become the League’s number one offensive team, averaging a league-high 33.8 points per game and they are by no means easy beats.
There has been a lot of movement in the Auckland 9’s market this week as squads were being named. Brisbane and North Queensland are now the co $4.50 favourites ahead of Parramatta ($6.50), the Warriors ($8) and the Titans at $9. That would seem to suggest there is a strong possibility that the trophy will be heading to Queensland as all three sides look a serious threat on paper.
The Broncos have been the biggest ‘go’, opening at $17 and backed all the way down to the current quote. There has been a little bit of support for the Melbourne Storm at $29 and Canberra at $34. The moves to win the title has meant that there have also been several price changes to the opening round of matches. The action gets under way early on Saturday at 9am (AEST) when Cronulla ($2.15) take on the heavily backed Titans ($1.70). After the Bronco side was announced, they firmed from $1.90 into $1.48 to beat Melbourne later in the morning and while that is a common trend in this tournament, there are quite often upsets in the first round.
Henrik Stenson opens as the $7.50 favourite with UBET to win this week’s Dubai Desert Classic. It would be fair to say that this event is lacking most of the big names, however they do have one big drawcard in Tiger Woods who is a $41 chance after a less than inspiring return to golf last week. Danny Willet is the defending champion and he is well down the betting list at $51.
The Phoenix Open is the US Tour event for the week and Jordan Spieth heads that market at $9 ahead of Hideki Matsuyama at $11. Matsuyama has been the most popular in early betting and apart from the fact he is the form player in world golf at the moment, he also won this event last year. Justin Thomas is another who has been in terrific form and he is on the next line at $12. Most of the interest lies with that trio but there has been a sprinkling of money for Phil Mickelson at $31 (won this event 3 times) and also Rickie Fowler ($34) who was runner up behind Matsuyama last year.
There are just two rounds to go in the regular season and no matter how it concludes, the Adelaide 36ers will be minor premiers, even though they were beaten last week by the Illawarra Hawks. As it stands, the 36ers are the $2.75 top picks to go on with the job and secure the title, followed by the Hawks at $4.50 and the Perth Wildcats at $5.50. Now into $8 after trading at $34 a fortnight ago, the Cairns Taipans have been huge market movers in the that time frame, winning four of their past five games to resurface as a top four hope.
Round 18 tips off on Friday with the Taipans ($2.45) travelling south to take on the Hawks ($1.55). Illawarra handed the 36ers just their eighth defeat of the season last week, while the Taipans recorded a massive win in New Zealand and then thumped the Bullets at home.
Favourite backers had a tough time of it last week with the likes of Newcastle and the Central Coast scoring upsets and an unpopular stalemate in the Adelaide-Wellington game. Unfortunately for punters, there looks to be little respite in round 18, which looms as yet another tricky one to tip with tight markets aplenty across the weekend.
Brisbane host Sydney tonight at Suncorp Stadium and the early money trail suggests the hosts will be hard up against it to put a halt to the Sky Blues’ 17-game unbeaten run. At this stage, money is coming at an 8:1 ratio in favour of the runaway ladder leaders, currently priced at a generous $2.30. For those keen to bet against the market, $3 is available about the Roar, but they may start a longer price, while the draw is also despised at $3.45.
Outside of that game, the marquee clash of the round is the Melbourne Derby. Saturday will be the third time this season the City and Victory have squared off and honours are thus far split evenly (although City did also defeat Victory in the FFA Cup back in November). As it stands, Victory has just about been backed to exclusion at $2.30, while no one wants a bar of City at $2.90 or the draw at $3.55.
The AFL have done a wonderful job of promoting the upcoming women’s competition, and it all gets under way on Friday night.
It is difficult to predict how popular the matches will be as a betting medium, but there has been a massive amount of interest in the title market to suggest that business will be very brisk. There have been several trial matches, and one thing that has stood out is that scoring opportunities have been scarce, so that should keep the games exciting. The Western Bulldogs and Melbourne are the $4.50 equal favourites at the moment, narrowly ahead of the heavily backed Carlton. The Blues opened at $9.00 and are in to $4.75 on the back of some pretty impressive leading into the opening round. They play Collingwood in the first match at Ikon Park (Princess Park) on Friday night, and with the Magpies being one side that have been in the media a lot, there should be plenty of interest. In all likelihood Carlton will be slight favourites, but the Collingwood hierarchy have been targeting this game for months. With all matches to be shown on Fox, there will be live betting throughout.