victoria derby
Victoria Derby 2021: Pro punter preview

Pro punter Trevor Lawson gives us his thoughts on the 2021 Victoria Derby.

The Derby… always an interesting and potentially tricky affair, with the three-year-olds getting all the way out to 2500 metres.

Victoria Derby: The Speed

The favourite Gunstock is drawn way out wide which will make things interesting. As usual, I may adjust things a little on raceday if an apparent pattern presents itself.

I think Zoumon comes across and leads them from Character, who sits handy, with Tutukaka, Forgot You, Hitotsu and Alegron next. Raging Bull goes back.

Victoria Derby: Key Runners

I’m previewing the key runners here in such a big field. I’ve got the rest quite long in the market – or not in the market at all.

FORGOT YOU is racing well and had a good win last start. It’s really about how long he can stay up I think. His last two runs have been tough runs and he has to back up quickly here. He’s had a lot of grand finals.

TUTUKAKA was ridden back last start in the Geelong Classic, was suited by the tempo and was strong late. He has rough claims here. Generally the Geelong Classic form doesn’t hold up in the Derby, so it’s hard to take too much from it.

ALEGRON is building nicely with his ratings, and put in a peak figure last start when out in distance in the Spring Champion. He looks a nice stayer.

GUNSTOCK put in a strong performance last start in the Norman Robinson, powering away late. On ratings he’s the horse to beat. The only negative is the wide barrier.

COMMANDER HARRY was at huge odds in the Moonee Valley Vase, Meech took off and got within a breath of getting the win, only just being run down. He looks a natural stayer and should be able to run this trip.

HITOTSU just hasn’t had the right prep for this. He’s third-up here and jumping from 1600m in the Guineas to 2500m here. If he’d had a 2000m run you’d almost say he would be favourite given the way he’s performed. But it looks a really strange prep, and it’s pretty hard to make that leap.

Victoria Derby: Final thoughts

I’ve got Gunstock on top. As I said, the only concern is the barrier, and I think he wins with a decent ride from McNeil. After that it’s Forgot You, who I think has just been up for a bit long, then Alegron and Hitotsu.

Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.

As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.

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