Moonnee Valley Race 7, 9:30pm
Group 1 Keogh Homes William Reid Stakes (1200m)
$500,000

The lay of the land

I’ll walk the track today before the race, but at this stage I’d expect it to play fairly evenly.  The rail is out two metres.

The speed story

Expect Flamberge and Star Turn to lead, with Illustrious Lad and Sheidel also rolling forward.  Japonisme and Kaepernick will be next in line, then Rock Magic and Hellbent in midfield.  Rebel Dane and Silent Sedition will be back and The Quarterback last, with Hooked caught widest.

In the mix

Rebel Dane is first-up and likes it here.  He’s an honest horse who will run alright and has a chance for mine.  Flamberge has some hope, it won this last year, but really isn’t going as well this time around.

Rock Magic ran third behind Takedown and Sheidel over in Perth, beating Malaguerra.  So I’ve rated him to that, making him a bit of a middle-pinner here.

Illustrious Lad ran well at Flemington down the straight first-up, and got completely lost last start.  Bowman goes on which is a big positive.

Hellbent hasn’t been suited past two starts.  I’m a little unsure to be honest but he will definitely be fitter and gets the blinkers on, so I’ve rated him up slightly.

Sheidel is a super-honest horse and gave a great display in the Oakleigh Plate, winning well after leading all the way.  She took cover last start and was probably unsuited, and I think she can be back to her best here.

Silent Sedition ran well over 1400m two starts back, and was then beaten an inch in the Coolmore, so is going well.  Will probably be caught wide here however, which won’t make it easy.

Japonisme is second-up and was first-up on a bog.  It’s also ran okay here in the past.

Hooked ran well first up but is coming back in trip and is also drawn out, so will find it tough.  Kaepernick is another rough chance.  He ran home well in the Oakleigh Plate and has won here and better suited at the 1200m.  I’m also giving Star Turn one last chance in what is a very open race.

Put a line through…

The Quarterback just gets too far back for mine.

Trev’s Tip

This is a really, really open race with a lot of chances.  Looking down the market, I’d say Illustrious Lad offers the best value, so I’ll be looking toward it.

Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over 15 years. His Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his early bets, assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.