Beating The Bookies On State Of Origin

Tonight's series opener holds some value for punters

NRL tips State of Origin

State of Origin starts tonight at 8pm with NSW vs QLD at the MCG. NSW are favourites for the opener and the series with some of the Maroon’s big names from previous series’ not playing.

The bookies have gone nuts again with most of them providing at least one promotion on the opening match. Most promotions are similar to the start of the NRL season, with a few variations. As usual, some promotions are great and several are ordinary, so read on to find out which ones you should play and which should be left alone!

Key

A+ selection – cracking value
A selection – excellent value
B selection – solid value, worth a bet
C selection – some value, not worth a bet
D selection – marginal value, not worth a bet
E selection – long-term losing proposition
F selection – absolute shocker

Betting Club

Head to Head – On The Hour

Bonus Bet Lead At 60 Minute Mark But Lose. Max $50. Not available to residents of SA.
 
This is a poor promotion. Teams do not lead often enough at the 60 minute mark and lose to make this worth a bet. Bonus Bet as consolation when it does happen is not a good reward. QLD is the better bet on this promotion if you wanted a bet.
 
Verdict: D-E selection

Bluebet

Head to Head – Lose 6 Points or Less

Money Back Lose 6 Points or Less. Max $50. Not available to residents of NSW or SA.
 
This is the same promotion that Bluebet ran at the start of the NRL season. All teams greater than $1.60 are A selections. Teams less than $1.60 are B selections. 
 
QLD is an A selection. NSW is a B selection.
 
Verdict: A-B selection

Crownbet

Head to Head – Double Winnings

Double Winnings in Cash. Max $25 Bet. Not available to residents of NSW or SA.
 
Both sides are good bets on this promotion but longer teams are better value, which makes QLD the better bet. 
 
NSW is an A selection. QLD is an A+ selection.
 
Verdict: A-A+ selection

1st Try Scorer – Bonus Jackpot

Share in $5,000 worth of Reward Points If 1st Try Scorer Bet Wins. Min Bet $10. Max Bet $50. Not available to residents of NSW or SA.
 
The value in this promotion depends on several factors but the most important factor is how much money is in the pool, which we don’t know! Knowing that would let us to determine the value on each player.
 
To take an extreme example, if you were the sole punter (small pool size) to pick the correct 1st try scorer then it’s happy days! You’ve just pocketed yourself $5,000 in Reward Points. At the opposite end of the spectrum, you could put $10 on Addo-Carr along with 1000 other punters (big pool) and if he scores first, you collect pocket change in Reward Points, along with everyone else who backed him.
 
We can approximate the proportion of money that’s on each player based on the market prices (a player at $10 will very roughly have twice the money on him than a player at $20) but the problem is that we have no idea about the volume of money in the pool, which affects how many reward points you receive and the value on this bet.
 
We’ve seen similar promotions before from Crownbet where they’ve offered $10,000 and $5,000 in reward points for 2nd and 3rd in a horse race. $10,000 promotions were worth a bet but the $5,000 promotions didn’t really make the cut, and those races were less popular events than State of Origin (i.e. those races were easier to receive more reward points). 
 
If you’re having a bet (not recommended), it does not matter whether you bet $10 or $50. $10 will result in 5 x less reward points than $50 if your 1st try scorer bet wins. Just make sure to bet in increments of $10 (e.g. $10, $20, $30, $40 or $50) as amounts in between waste value.
 
Verdict: D selection

Ladbrokes

1st Try Scorer – 2nd Try Scorer Payout

2nd Try Scorer Paid As Winner. No maximum stated. No state restrictions.
 
This is the same promotion the one originally released by Tabtouch at the start of the NRL season. See the Tabtouch section below for more information on this promotion. This is a good bet.
 
Verdict: A selection

Neds

1st Try Scorer – First Try Scorer Refund

Money Back 1st Try Scorer Scores Try Later in Match. Max $50. Not available to residents of SA.
 
1st Try Scorer bets are hard to make a profit on because the market percentages are terrible and this bet is no different. While the promotion catches up most of the market percentage, it never makes it into profit. 
 
The favourites are the best bets in this market if you were having a bet. Like several Neds promotions, you need to place this bet on the promotional market, which can be accessed via the promotions page.
 
Verdict: D selection.

Palmerbet

Head to Head – 60 Minute Mark

Bonus Bet Lead At 60 Minute Mark But Lose. Max $100. Not available to residents of SA and WA.
 
This is the same promotion as Betting Club.
 
Verdict: D-E selection

Pointsbet

Price – Blues $2 Either Winger To Score Try

Either NSW Winger (Addo-Carr or Tom Trbojevic) To Score Try $2. Max $50. Not available to residents of NSW, SA or WA.
 
This is approximately a 70% chance of happening based on the markets, which makes this bet an A+ selection. Try putting this bet on if you are from a restricted state and you may be able to get it on.
 
Verdict: A+ selection

Spreads – $500 Back If 0-0 After 10 Minutes

Bonus Bet Team Line Spread Bet Loses But 0-0 After 10 Minutes. Max $500. Not available to residents of NSW, SA or WA.
 
You need to back a Spreads bet (not Fixed Odds) on New South Wales Line or Queensland Line on this bet.
 
There is approximately a 40% chance the score will be 0-0 after 10 minutes but the bonus element of this bet reduces the value significantly. 
 
Either side is the same value, so this promotion can be a good way to “balance out” your bets if you have several bets on one side and want to reduce your risk on the match. $20 per point ($20 would be the amount you enter in the white box when you place your spreads bet) is the amount I would play. 
 
If you’ve never played a spreads promotion on Pointsbet before, you are not allowed to move the slider bar when you click on the bet (i.e. not allowed to use “Stop Loss” function).
 
Just be wary with spreads that blowout results can have a very good or very bad effect on your account balance! It’s always good to consider the worst result that could happen when determining your stake on spreads.
 
Verdict: C selection

Sportsbet

Head to Head – 8 Up You Win

Early Payout Lead By 8 Points But Lose. Max $500. Not available to residents of SA and WA.
 
Sportsbet ran the same promotion at the start of the NRL season except it was 12 Up You Win. That promotion was a C-D selection but the decrease to 8 points has a big effect. While the scenario where one team leads by 8 points or more and goes onto lose is rare, the early payout adds significant value. 
 
The maximum on this promotion is $500 but I would stick with your regular bet size (or maybe a little more).
 
Roughies are significantly better bets on this promotion. QLD are an A selection. NSW are a D selection.
 
Verdict: A-D selection

TAB

Head to Head – 4+ Point Promotion

Bonus Bet Equal To Winnings If Team Wins By 4+ Points. Max $50 Extra Winnings. Not available to residents of SA and WA.
 
TAB have provided similar promotions in the past and despite this promotion being better than those, this promotion still isn’t a good bet, independent of which side you play. 
 
You either need to outlay too much on NSW to earn the $50 bonus bet, or you have a low chance of hitting the 4+ point win on QLD. Both sides are similar value. 
 
The formula to work out your outlay on this bet is:
 
Outlay = $50/(Price – 1) and round to the nearest $5.
 
Verdict: C selection

Prices – Various

TAB are also offering various special prices on the match, which can be accessed from Menu -> Sports -> Today’s Specials:
 
• NSW 3-0 and 13+ Point Margin Per Match $21
• Nathan Cleary To Score A Try in Game 1 $6
• Tom or Jake Trbojevic To Score First or Last Try $6
 
All these prices are around the price they should be, perhaps marginal value.
 
Verdict: D selections

Tabtouch

1st Try Scorer – First Try Scorer 2 Winners

2nd Try Scorer Paid As Winner. Max $100 Return. Not available to residents of NSW, VIC or SA.
 
We saw this promotion at the start of the NRL season.
 
This is a rare, nice promotion on the 1st Try Scorer market. Market percentages on 1st Try Scorer markets are always poor but paying out for 2nd place (essentially what this promotion is) adds a lot of value. All options are similar value, which leans me towards the favourites end of the market for a more likely collect.
 
This promotion can be used in combination with the same promotion on Ladbrokes to back two different players for 1st Try Scorer. However, this promotion is limited to a $5-$10 bet depending on who you back, so keep that in mind when playing this promotion in combination with Ladbrokes (where you can bet more on your 1st Try Scorer bet).
 
The maximum payout for the promotion is $100 return (not profit). Therefore, the outlay equation is:
 
Outlay = $100/Price
 
Verdict: A selection

Topbetta

Price – Either Team To Win By 10 Points or Less

Either Team To Win By 10 Points or Less $2. Max $100. No state restrictions.
 
This sounded like a decent bet but based on the markets it’s pretty ordinary. This is approximately a 50% chance of happening and it’s not clear whether the Draw is counted as a win, which would make the value worse.
 
Steve Green (NRL Tips) thinks this will be a close match, which upgrades this bet from a D to C selection.
 
Verdict: C selection

Any Time Try Scorer – Try Scorer Profit Multiplier

Any Time Try Scorer Profit Multiplied By Number of Tries Scored By Player (Cash). Max $300 Extra Profit. No state restrictions.
 
The Any Time Try Scorer market is not bad as the 1st Try Scorer market but still has a poor market percentage. Receiving multiples of profit on the original bet is a nice offer but the chance of scoring 2+ tries in a predicted low-scoring match is low, even for the favourites in this market.
 
All that results in what is a poor bet. 
 
Note this is a bet on the “Any Time Try Scorer” market (not 1st Try Scorer) if you’re having a bet.
 
Verdict: E selection

Ubet

Head to Head – 8 Points or More

Money Back Lead By 8 Points or More But Lose. Max $50. Not available to residents of NSW.
 
We’ve seen this promotion at the start of the NRL season on Ubet.
 
Given a team needs to be ahead by more than one converted try (6 points) to qualify for the promotion, 8+ point leads that result in losses do not occur very often and even less so in low scoring matches, which this is expected to be.
 
It’s longer the price, the better the bet, but this promotion never reaches enough value to make it a bet.
 
Verdict: D selection

Ubet+ Millionaire

Place $5 Bet on Origin I To Enter Draw For 1 Million Reward Points. Min $5 Per Bet. Max 10 Entries. Must be Ubet+ Rewards Member. Not available to residents of NSW, ACT or TAS.
 
1 Million Ubet+ Reward Points is worth $2500 real cash, so why not have a go?
 
You need to be a current Ubet+ Rewards member to play this promotion. If you have not already looked into each of the bookies’ rewards programs, they are all worth joining. Some (such as TAB and Ubet) you will let you continue earning rewards points even after you are promo restricted.
 
Each $5 bet on Origin I gives you an entry into the draw. You can bet on any market. Putting 10 x $5 bets on the head to head or line (total cost $50) can be used to balance out your other bets and in markets such as the head to head or line, the long-term cost is minimal (around $2.50, $50 x 105% market = $2.50).
 
Given most punters will play 1 or 2 bets on the match, placing 10 x $5 bets will give you a much better chance of winning, although it is still a lottery.
 
Verdict: A selection

Price – Queensland Ultrabet

Holmes or Inglis To Score Try $2.50. Max $25. No state restrictions.
 
It’s a better than 50% chance Inglis or Holmes will score a try, which makes this a nice bet.
 
There doesn’t appear to be any state restrictions on this bet, so NSW residents should be ok to play.
 
Verdict: A selection

Unibet

Head to Head – 25% Profit Boost

25% Profit Boost on All Markets. Max Bet $100. Not available to residents of SA.
 
Markets such as Head to Head can provide good value on profit boost promotions depending on the boost in question. It’s longer the price, the better the bet on this promotion. QLD is a B selection. NSW is a D selection.
 
Verdict: B-D selection

Price – Either Team To Win By 10+ Points

Either Team To Win By 10+ Points $2.50. Max $100. Not available to residents of SA.
 
This is better than a 50% chance of happening based on the markets, which makes this a nice bet. You can access this bet via the promotions page -> State of Origin Specials.
 
Steve Green (NRL tips) thinks this will be a close match, which downgrades this bet from an A to B selection.
 
Verdict: B selection

Price – Addo-Carr and Holmes

Unibet have a couple more price bets on the match:
 
• NSW Win and Addo-Carr to Score Try $3.50
• QLD Win and Holmes to Score Try $6.50
 
Both the prices are the price they should be.
 
Verdict: D selections

William Hill

Head to Head – Chase The Points

Bonus Points Equivalent To Team Score Regardless of Result. Min Bet $20. Not available to residents of NSW, SA and WA.
 
This is an excellent promotion from William Hill. For a $20 bet, you receive however many dollars in Bonus Points your team scores, regardless of the result.
 
Both teams are A selections but favourites are the best bet on promotions like this because they are more likely to get a higher score. QLD are an A selection. NSW is an A+ selection.
 
As with all William Hill promotions, you need to select this promotion from the promotions page before you play it.
 
Verdict: A-A+ selection

Summary

Betting Club – Head to Head – On The Hour – D-E selection
Bluebet – Head to Head – Lose 6 Points or Less – A-B selection
Crownbet – Head to Head – Double Winnings – A-A+ selection
Crownbet – 1st Try Scorer – Bonus Jackpot – D selection
Ladbrokes – 1st Try Scorer – 2nd Try Scorer Payout – A selection
Neds – 1st Try Scorer – First Try Scorer Refund – D selection
Palmerbet – Head to Head – 60 Minute Mark – D-E selection
Pointsbet – Price – Blues $2 Either Winger To Score Try – A+ selection
Pointsbet – Spreads – $500 Back If 0-0 After 10 Minutes – C selection
Sportsbet – Head to Head – 8 Up You Win – A-D selection
TAB – Head to Head – 4+ Point Promotion – C selection
TAB – Prices – Various – D selections
Tabtouch – 1st Try Scorer – First Try Scorer 2 Winners – A selection
Topbetta – Price – Either Team To Win By 10 Points or Less – C selection
Topbetta – Any Time Try Scorer – Try Scorer Profit Multiplier – E selection
Ubet – Head to Head – 8 Points or More – D selection
Ubet – Ubet+ Millionaire – A selection
Ubet – Price – Queensland Ultrabet
Unibet – Head to Head – 25% Profit Boost – B-D selection
Unibet – Price – Either Team To Win By 10+ Points – B selection
Unibet – Price – Addo-Carr and Holmes – D selections
William Hill – Head to Head – Chase The Points – A-A+ selection
We have a mixed bag of good, average and poor promotions on offer but plenty to keep us interested and several nice opportunities.
 
Good luck with whatever bets you back and based on the above analysis, go Maroons!
 
All the best,
 
Rod