Read on for AFL Round 18 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 18: Bulldogs v St Kilda, Friday night
Early prediction: Bulldogs
The value: Bulldogs -9.5 at TopSport
- The loser of this prime-time game looks almost certain to miss the finals
- Bulldogs will be excited to return to Marvel after a couple of tough interstate games
- Saints have just one win from their last five and are struggling to score
AFL Round 18: Adelaide v Collingwood, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Collingwood easily
The value: Collingwood -10.5 at TopSport
- Early money has been for Adelaide – $3.10 >> 2.75
- Collingwood have won the last 5 meetings between the teams by an average of 37 points
- Adelaide have lost 8 of last 10 with wins over just West Coast and North Melbourne in that period
GWS v Brisbane, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Brisbane
The value: Brisbane by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Brisbane 4-1 in the past five matchups vs GWS (the loss was by 3 points)
- Aside from the Suns back in Round 3, all of GWS’s wins this season have been against current bottom 4 sides
- Selection upheaval last week at Brisbane due to COVID but their quality should get them over the line
North Melbourne v Richmond, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Tigers too good
The value: Total points over 175.5 at TopSport
- Total points scored in Richmond games away from the MCG this season: 206, 221, 183, 201, 186
- North may get the short-term ‘new coach bounce’ after sacking David Noble this week
- But the Tigers will be on a mission after throwing away the Gold Coast game last week
Carlton v Geelong, Saturday night
Early prediction: Geelong
The value: Geelong -8.5 at TopSport
- Geelong coming off 9-day break, Carlton just a 6-day break and coming in from WA
- Carlton are 0-3 after 6-day breaks this season losing to Freo, Richmond and St Kilda
- Geelong should be flag favourites after clinical display over Melbourne last week
Fremantle v Sydney, Saturday night
Early prediction: Freo
The value: Freo -8.5 at TopSport
- Sydney having an inconsistent year and just cannot get on a roll
- After a mid-season lull, Freo have won 5 of their past 6
- Sydney are 2-10 against Freo in Perth since 2000
AFL Round 18: Hawthorn v West Coast, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Hawks
The value: Hawthorn by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Clash between two very ordinary teams
- West Coast cannot be tipped, yet Hawthorn don’t have enough to blow them away
- If you’re after a footy fix on Sunday, your local Under 10s will probably be a more compelling contest.
Melbourne v Port Adelaide, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Dees to bounce back
The value: Melbourne by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Dees have mixed their form recently but are still just percentage off top spot
- Clayton Oliver is a huge out but they do have good midfield depth
- Port has only lost one game by 40+ points all season (Round 2 v Hawks)
Essendon v Gold Coast, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Close scoreboard but free-flowing game
The value: Total points over 172.5 at TopSport
- Gold Coast are yet to beat Essendon in Melbourne
- Essendon are averaging 99 pts in their last 4 games after averaging 66 pts in their first 12 games of the season
- Gold Coast’s win over Richmond last week showed a resilient unit
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