Read on for AFL Round 21 early mail and value betting leans for each game…
AFL Round 21: Melbourne v Collingwood, Friday night
Early prediction: Dees
The value: Melbourne -16.5 at TopSport
- Pies are the biggest surprise of the season after winning 10 in a row
- The Dees made a statement last week to demolish the Dockers in Perth
- They should be too strong and experienced for the Pies
AFL Round 21: Hawthorn v Gold Coast, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Hawthorn to hit more targets in attack
The value: Hawthorn H2H at TopSport
- Early money for the Hawks
- Gold Coast fell in last week against West Coast
- Hawthorn won Inside 50 count but going forward their efficiency was just 35% v St Kilda
GWS v Essendon, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Essendon comfortably
The value: Essendon -3.5 at TopSport
- It’s “Checked-Out” vs “Checked-in”
- Last 4 meetings favour GWS 3-1, but average margin just 6 points
- Essendon have now won 5 of last 7, Giants have lost their last 4
Bulldogs v Fremantle, Saturday afternoon
Early prediction: Tight
The value: Freo +11.5 at TopSport
- Bulldogs have won the last 3 meetings and MUST WIN to stay in race for Finals
- Freo are 4-1 (plus a draw) in Victoria this season
- This will be tight, close and defensive
Geelong v St Kilda, Saturday night
Early prediction: Geelong
The value: Geelong by 1-39 points at TopSport
- Geelong are purring with 10 straight wins and most of those were by comfortable margins
- Cats are always tough to beat at home but this is a big line against an 11-8 team
- Saints have won their last two against the 13th and 17th placed teams
Port Adelaide v Richmond, Saturday night
Early prediction: Close
The value: Either team by under 15.5 points at TopSport
- Port have a 3-3 record at Adelaide Oval against Richmond since 2017: impressive given how good Richmond have been
- Richmond are just 4-7 in Adelaide overall during the same period
- Port’s margins last three weeks: 6, 12, 14. Richmond: 7, 0, 4
AFL Round 21: North Melbourne v Sydney, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Potential blow-out
The value: Total points over 171.5 at TopSport
- Sydney has surged into the Top 4 with four straight wins and plenty of goals
- North Melbourne’s ‘new coach bounce’ appears over and their defence is struggling
- They’ve lost by 8 goals against the 13th and 14th ranked sides in the last two weeks
Brisbane v Carlton, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Brisbane
The value: Brisbane -15.5 at TopSport
- Carlton have been very patchy for much of the season, with their last 10 weeks reading W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L
- That apparently makes them due for a win, but they get the toughest road trip in footy
- Brisbane were disappointing in the second half last week, but are a different team at the Gabbatoir… 8-1 this year, with the only loss coming when they were ravaged by COVID
West Coast v Adelaide, Sunday afternoon
Early prediction: Who knows?
The value: West Coast H2H at TopSport
- Two horrific teams clash to finish off the weekend
- Very hard to pick on form, with no real form either way. Adelaide had a win last weekend, but that could be a blip
- Will back West Coast (with little confidence) to make it a farewell party for Josh Kennedy
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