Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans. Here’s his AFL Round 15 Preview.

🍻 Pub bets Watching a game and want an interest? We’ve thrown in the pub bet for that very reason… it might just be a smart way to play based on Pete’s excellent analysis!
AFL Round 15: Brisbane v Geelong

Who could forget the last time these two played each other – GMHBA Stadium, Round 2, the infamous Zac Bailey/Mark Blicavs non-decision, the Cats sneaking home by a point.

A lot of things have changed since that night. For starters, both teams are playing significantly better. At the time, the Cats were playing far slower, denying the opposition from scoring but also failing to score heavily themselves. The Lions ended up -109 disposals and -46 in uncontested marks, easily their worst figures for the year.

The Cats have since become joint favourites for the flag, knocking off fellow contenders Richmond, Port Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs in the last six weeks. Geelong will have roughly 17 of the same players from the Round 2 side taking the field on Thursday night, but they are a totally different team.

The same goes for Brisbane – they were 1-3 from the first four matches, pinching one against the Pies the week after being incredibly stiff against Geelong. They’ve gone 9-1 since, peeled off seven successive scores of 90+ and certainly look a far more mature team in the way they play. Sets up for an incredible contest here.

The points for & against columns confirm how tricky this will be to predict: 3rd v 6th on offence (Brisbane ahead, only 49 points between them), and 3rd v 5th on defence (Cats only 33 in front). A poor second half from Brisbane against the Demons in Round 12 is the only thing stopping them from conceding fewer than 80 points in the past seven matches.

So with all that, it comes down to which forward line can simply find a way. Neither side is overly reliant on their tall forwards (they both possess strong key targets but are mid-table at their goals from marks percentage), so the game might hinge on the smalls – Cameron, Bailey & McCarthy are genuine quality forwards. Gary Rohan is obviously in the form of his life, but it falls away for the Cats a little after that.

Is Dangerfield again the key? Two games under his belt now after injury, but yet to kick a goal in four games. If the midfield can do without him for a little more than usual, he becomes the one needed to hit the scoreboard if Brisbane’s key defenders can hold their own against Cameron and Hawkins.

Both sides have been “up” for a fair while, and it wouldn’t surprise to see either of them rate a little lower than their usual output. The Cats have come through an arduous fortnight, while the Lions will appreciate being back at home to test themselves against another top side. They failed last time against Melbourne, but Geelong plays a totally different style.

Leaning to the Lions, just. Only because of a question mark on the cumulative effect of the past couple of weeks on the Cats.

Pick Brisbane by 8
🍻 Pub bet
Full-time Tri-bet 15.5 points
Either team under 15.5
$2.42 with TopSport

Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans.

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