Footy betting, line betting, afl analysis, AFL round 20. afl finals week 1

Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans. Here’s his AFL Round 17 Saturday Preview.

🍻 Pub bets Watching a game and want an interest? We’ve thrown in the pub bet for that very reason… it might just be a smart way to play based on Pete’s excellent analysis!
AFL Round 17: Hawthorn v Fremantle

Very interesting to see how Fremantle responds after last week. Clearly it was the win that got away against Carlton, so their ability to bounce back will tell us a lot about their belief. They get a near-perfect setup to show their progress – head to Tassie, roll the sleeves up and knock off the Hawks away from home.

This is a huge game for Rory Lobb and Josh Treacy. Ten goals between them in the last three matches. They will need a similar output on the weekend in cold but dry conditions, plus a contribution from the likes of Henry, Schultz and Walters (watch him play a blinder after being mentioned a fair bit this week). Hardly household names, but they do have the quality to test Hawthorn’s defence.

With the edge through the middle (+38 clearance in the last four games is the best in the competition), Fremantle just have to defend well enough to keep Hawthorn to a manageable score.

The Hawks have definitely improved their form after the bye, and might show some sort of response after the news of their coaching succession plan this week, so the Dockers won’t find this easy. They are just a better side – doesn’t always guarantee victory, of course, but we will side with the Dockers to get the job done.

Pick Fremantle by 10
🍻 Pub bet
Fremantle by 1-39
$2.20 with TopSport

AFL Round 17: Carlton v Geelong

This game could deliver anything. Two wins in a row for the Blues – against the Crows and the Dockers. Neither of them all that convincing. Has it given us a bit of false hope that they could knock off Geelong here?

The Cats were pretty clinical against Essendon after quarter time. Importantly, that was nearly three quarters of football without Jeremy Cameron. There shouldn’t bee too many concerns about their ability to score without him, even though the step down from Cameron to Ratugolea (we assume) is pretty significant.

Have to be wary of what this Geelong defence could do to Carlton, and how they could launch the ball back the other way if the Blues aren’t committed to defending themselves. Stewart is borderline unstoppable, Henry and Atkins underrated, and you can absolutely trust Tuohy, Kolodjashnij and Henderson to play well.

Carlton haven’t beaten anyone in the top eight this season. Hard to see this as the game they break the trend unless they can get the jump on Geelong early. Maybe that’s their window of opportunity? The Cats are 6-8 in first quarters this season, haven’t won a first term since Round 11 and have scored 1.2 combined in their past two. All out attack from Carlton early?

Geelong are far easier to trust than Carlton. The Blues have enough speed and class through the middle/half-back to trouble them at times, but it’s a matter of whether they can penetrate their defence often enough. That’s the big road block in the way of the Blues pulling off the upset.

Pick Geelong by 29
🍻 Pub bet
Geelong -17.5
$1.90 with TopSport

AFL Round 17: Brisbane v St Kilda

A potential trap game for Brisbane after a soft win against Adelaide and an extended period away from home. They are closer to their own beds at least, having flown back to Queensland during the week. Metricon will obviously be no problem for them, but it’s far from the Gabba fortress where the crowd really gets behind them.

St Kilda have at least turned the corner from an effort perspective, even though they don’t seem to trust themselves to close out a contest – Adelaide came storming home when they went back into their shells, and the Magpies arguably could have pinched it last week in the final quarter. Poise isn’t the Saints’ strong suit.

So Brisbane will play in a similar manner to the way Collingwood did in the final term last Sunday. Aggressive, fast ball movement to a forward line full of players who hit the scoreboard. Tough test for St Kilda to hold up the dam wall, particularly in dry conditions.

Having said that, the Saints could test the Lions just as much. The 1-2 punch of Ryder and Marshall is a great starting point, giving them a clear edge over McInerney and Joe Daniher. Those two have played together five times this year. The clearance differential in those games: +48. A break even at stoppage would probably be a success against the Lions midfield, but they have the capability to do better than that if Steele, Crouch and Dunstan can rise to the occasion.

Tricky one – Lions clearly a better side, Saints incredibly hard to predict. Does their win against Richmond look a little less impressive after the Tigers dropped a game against the Suns a week later? Can only beat the team in front of you perhaps, and there aren’t any easy games anymore.

Wary of the Lions putting in a flat one at some point. Couldn’t confidently side with St Kilda either, even though a win wouldn’t shock.

Pick Brisbane by 20
🍻 Pub bet
St Kilda +28.5
$1.90 with TopSport

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