Footy betting, line betting, afl analysis, AFL round 20. afl finals week 1

Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans. Here’s his AFL Round 17 Preview.

🍻 Pub bets Watching a game and want an interest? We’ve thrown in the pub bet for that very reason… it might just be a smart way to play based on Pete’s excellent analysis!

 

AFL Round 17: Richmond v Brisbane (Friday)

What to do with Richmond? We know they aren’t the same side as previous years, yet they threaten to be one of the more unpredictable sides on the run home. If we thought Sydney were the trickiest team to analyse, the Tigers might have just joined them.

The loss of Marcus Adams might be felt by the Lions more than some would think. He has been able to take care of the beast forwards, allowing Andrews and co to get a bit more creative in the back half. Richmond can still beat you with Lynch and Riewoldt up forward so without Adams the job definitely becomes a bit tougher.

It all comes down to Richmond and their ability to defend. We have to get our heads around the fact they aren’t defending nearly as well as we are used to. Their scores against have hovered around the 70-90 point mark for the past five weeks – Brisbane are a step above any of the teams the Tigers have faced in that time.


Unless the Tigers can find a way to dial up the pressure again (second-worst pressure rating in the past four weeks), the Lions should have plenty of opportunity to move the ball quickly and post a solid total.

Expecting this to be a bounce back spot for both sides – Richmond have lost their past four, the Lions put in a flat one after winning ten of their previous eleven games. If we believe Brisbane are serious flag contenders (we do), then they just have to get the job done here. The midfielders were taught a lesson last week, so the review should have sharpened them up for Friday night.

Pride suggests Richmond won’t make it easy for them, but now the venue switch makes it even tougher – what would’ve been the Lions’ first trip to the MCG this season on a potentially a slippery deck, has turned into a Metricon Stadium “neutral” venue in the Lions’ home state where they can avenge their loss last week against the Saints.

Lions to win. Wary of the Tigers lifting a little after being under the pump for so long. Only one bad quarter against Collingwood ruined their game last week. Would they be such big underdogs if that hadn’t happened?

Pick Brisbane by 10
🍻 Pub bet
Brisbane 1-39
$1.98 with TopSport

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