AFL Round 4, AFL Round 15

Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans. Here’s his AFL Round 19 Preview.

🍻 Pub bets Watching a game and want an interest? We’ve thrown in the pub bet for that very reason… it might just be a smart way to play based on Pete’s excellent analysis!

More fixture changes, fewer games with crowds, a few key players still in isolation. But the show goes on.

It is absolutely worth noting though that analysis has never been as greyed up as right now. You can look through the figures all you want, establish formlines and try to predict a certain level of performance. Yet with hub life affecting some teams and others at the very least living with a lot of uncertainty, the mental game threatens to take over the physical one.

We definitely feel like we’ve got the on-field analysis worked out, giving us an edge. Is the edge then immediately lost if you have to factor in which teams will show up each week under a significant COVID cloud? Definitely food for thought. Something that has us treading warily for the last portion of the season.

AFL Round 19: Port Adelaide v Collingwood

With the choice of Victorian venue for the Friday night clash, Port Adelaide smartly chose Marvel Stadium to play to their strengths – speed, turnovers and enough firepower up forward to trouble an injury-hit Collingwood.

The ins and outs of both sides should ensure the Pies go into this game as long outsiders. The usual three of Butters, Duursma and Rozee (do they ever get mentioned singularly, or are they forever linked to each other?) return to give them the speed and class they need, while Collingwood lose a couple of soldiers and replace them with two debutants.

In the Round 18 review we wondered whether Collingwood might have run out of gas this season. They definitely did against Carlton – is it a sign of things to come? They face a tougher opponent here on a fast deck with a much better defensive record. The jump from a 15th-ranked defence in Carlton to the 4th-best points against column in Port Adelaide should just about see Collingwood off.

The Pies would have to somehow get the jump on Port Adelaide and keep the scoring low to pinch it. They’ve won only a single first-half quarter since the bye, so that seems highly unlikely. They are also bottom-four in scores against over that same period, playing 9th, 10th, 11th, and 13th. Again, Port Adelaide are a step above all of those sides even though they still remain a rung below the top contenders.

You couldn’t say Port Adelaide are travelling brilliantly. If it wasn’t for their 91 points against Geelong in their Round 13 loss by 21 points, Port wouldn’t have topped 90 against any top eight side. Given Collingwood are far from finals material they should still do enough here. Crucial to build some sort of offensive form at the back end of the season, as they desperately need it.

Be careful if Port Adelaide are in that “mood” we’ve only seen a couple of times this year. If they are, our prediction of 23 points could end up half the eventual margin.

Pick Port Adelaide by 23
🍻 Pub bet
Port Adelaide -23.5
$1.90 with TopSport

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