afl round 9, afl round 11

Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans. Here’s his AFL Round 21 Preview.

🍻 Pub bets Watching a game and want an interest? We’ve thrown in the pub bet for that very reason… it might just be a smart way to play based on Pete’s excellent analysis!
AFL Round 21: West Coast v Melbourne

It would be an absolute indictment on the Eagles if they magically lift for this one. After practically not trying in so many games this season it would be very West Coast-like to actually put in an effort up to AFL standard.

So we are wary of a massive uptick in output from the Eagles on defence. But will it be enough against a side suited to a dry Optus Stadium where the turnover game is critical?

Have to feel for Xavier O’Neill – how is he the only one omitted from a side that threw in the towel from the first bounce last week? There is loyalty and there’s loyalty. Incredible to see the same players given another chance week after week in this side.

So the turnover game is the key here. Melbourne have the best midfield turnover differential in the comp, dropping to fourth in scoring output from that area. The Eagles are the lowest of the top eight sides in both categories. When you consider West Coast are the worst pressure side of the season and the Demons sit second, it is incredibly hard to argue that the Eagles can somehow cause the upset.

With Melbourne having to endure a 7-day lockdown over in Perth in order to play at Optus Stadium, there is a slight query on whether they come out a bit flat in their first game in front of a crowd for a while. A slow start could give the Eagles a bit of confidence at least, and any dip in defensive intent from Melbourne would be dangerous given the offensive weapons of West Coast – give them enough supply and they will still find ways to score.

An Eagles win certainly wouldn’t shock, but you’d have to be picking them on the basis that Melbourne don’t play to their usual level. First quarter critical.

Pick: Melbourne by 9

🍻 Pub bet
Dees by 1-24 points
$2.88 with

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