Footy betting, line betting

Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans. Here’s his AFL Round 21 Preview.

🍻 Pub bets Watching a game and want an interest? We’ve thrown in the pub bet for that very reason… it might just be a smart way to play based on Pete’s excellent analysis!
AFL Round 21: Hawthorn v Collingwood

The venue switch has played into Collingwood’s hands here. Still a tricky matchup to predict, though. Hawthorn have knocked off the Swans, Giants and Lions in the last two months, and drawn with Melbourne. In between those games they’ve been obliterated by Fremantle without an offence, and lost a shootout with…the Crows.

So what the hell do we do here?

The post-Buckley era at Collingwood makes for interesting reading – they’re enjoying far more of the ball (jumped from 11th to 3rd in disposal differential), kicking their way through teams (16th to 1st in uncontested mark differential) and given the youngsters a shot at staking their claim for a spot in the best 22. Nine debutants this season is the most of any side.

With Luke Breust on the sidelines and question marks over the Hawks defence, this looks like the kind of setup where Collingwood could thrive. Consistency hasn’t been a strong suit for either side lately so we can’t be too confident, but happy to side with the Pies given they are at least a couple of seasons ahead of the Hawks in their list cycle.

Pick: Collingwood by 19

🍻 Pub bet
Pies -5.5
$1.85 with
TopSport

AFL Round 21: Western Bulldogs v Essendon

The Bombers have played in three games this season where both sides have scored 100 points. They have lost all of them. If they find themselves in another shootout here against the Dogs, it’s not going to end well for them.

The Blues and Giants posted their highest scores of the year against Essendon. The Swans put up a 13-goal second half last week. The Bulldogs are the highest scoring offence this season. Unless the Bombers try to win a bit differently, it’s hard to see how they contain a side with more scoring options than anyone.

In comes Adam Treloar for his first game since Round 10. Does that push Bontempelli forward a bit more? It’s already a stacked front six, so it will be interesting to see how they line up, and who ends up hitting the scoreboard.

The Bombers have some reasonable inclusions of their own but lose Heppell and Langford which could upset their balance a little. Heppell in particular would have been important to try and contain the flood of Dogs midfielders charging into the forward line. Without him they are even more vulnerable defensively.

The clearance game of the Dogs should see them win the stoppage battle comfortably (#1 at clearance differential this year), and with the Bombers prone to making the game an open contest, it’s hard to see how they can contain the turnover of the Bulldogs either.

There were signs a few weeks ago that the Bombers had lost a bit of their energy. Getting close to the Swans last week might have given them false hope and drained their batteries even more. They are super vulnerable here.

Pick: Western Bulldogs by 45

🍻 Pub bet
Bulldogs 40+
$2.68 with
TopSport

AFL Round 21: Fremantle v Brisbane

Match of the round. Someone has pulled the hand brake on Brisbane, while the Dockers come off winning the unwinnable last week against Richmond.

Was the Hawks loss the reality check the Lions needed? It might turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Now with their top four hopes basically gone, Brisbane’s best chance is to throw caution to the wind and make this an offensive battle.

Fremantle don’t generally beat you by posting big scores, while the Lions are still the second highest scoring offence of the year. Their defence has let them down lately – scores of 95, 106, 71 and 92 against them in the past month. Now they face a side without a heap of potency, they only need a slight uplift defensively to keep the Dockers to a manageable total and let their forwards go to work up the other end.

Clearly the midfield battle becomes pivotal here. The Dockers have been propped up by their mids for most of the year and aren’t showing any signs of slowing down. They have the second best clearance differential in the past month. The Lions aren’t far behind in fourth.

Darcy, Mundy, Cerra, Brayshaw and Serong up against McInerney, Lyons, Berry, Zorko and McCluggage. What a matchup. Fremantle with the edge on paper, so it probably comes down to Brisbane’s ability to break even and find their fair share of supply to their forwards.

The Dockers have arguably over-performed this year given their injuries and gaps up forward. Knocking off the Lions here isn’t out of the question, but it would be a serious effort to lock down another potent offence like they did with Richmond last weekend.

Leaning to the Lions because of their scoring power. Just.

Pick: Brisbane by 8

🍻 Pub bet
Lions 1-24
$3.05 with
TopSport

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