Pete Roberts from Behind The Footy is sharing some of his great content with us for the 2021 AFL season. Pete spent fifteen years in AFL coaching boxes as an analyst. He now shares those insights with footy fans. Here’s his AFL Round 22 Preview.

🍻 Pub bets Watching a game and want an interest? We’ve thrown in the pub bet for that very reason… it might just be a smart way to play based on Pete’s excellent analysis!
AFL Round 22: GWS v Richmond

With two premiership points separating 8th and 12th, this game becomes the pivotal matchup of Round 22. The #FreeToby movement has failed to succeed in their mission (no comment), so unfortunately we don’t see Toby Greene against the Tigers.

The last time they met (at the same venue, funnily enough), the Giants jumped Richmond early – seven scoring shots to three at quarter time, Jesse Hogan with three goals in a short burst in the second quarter. The Tigers reeled them in, but with a bit of luck (and a couple of free kicks to a wounded Toby Greene) the Giants should have saluted.

It’s an epic rematch for a spot in the top eight. One that the Giants can definitely win. Just wish Greene was on the field.

How are the Tigers favourite in this one? Is everyone just taking them on trust that they are in good enough form? They’ve lost six of their past eight matches, four of them to teams below the Giants on the ladder. An 11-goal second half against North Melbourne can’t mask the fact they kicked two goals in a half against a team about to win the wooden spoon.

The inclusions for GWS more than outweigh the loss of Greene – a fresh Jesse Hogan, Jacob Hopper off the back of an enforced concussion absence, new $8m man Josh Kelly and barometer Shane Mumford. With Taranto and Whitfield in red hot form, they have the nucleus of a side that can seriously challenge in a finals series, let alone against a team we aren’t convinced are playing well enough to even make it.

The Tigers offence wasn’t nearly as clinical as we thought they would be last week, even once the game opened up. Riewoldt and Lynch kicked two between them against the Roos. Taylor played one of the best games from a full-back all season against Tom Hawkins. A repeat of that will go a long way to helping GWS over the line.

Just loving what the Giants are doing at the moment. They have morphed into a hard-edged, contested-ball winning team that can keep sides to a low total. With this midfield they have the edge over Richmond, who are still dead last in clearance differential this season.

Modern footy is constantly edging towards a turnover game rather than a stoppage battle, but in this particular matchup GWS should play to their strengths. After posting a -20 Inside 50 differential in their past two games, getting more supply up their end of the ground will already feel like a win.

Could end up with egg on the face, but the Giants are well and truly worth a crack here.

Pick: GWS by 10

🍻 Pub bet
Giants Half-time/Full-time Double
$2.90 with

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