AFL Round 22 Sunday Preview

The Crows did the unthinkable in Round 10 and snapped Melbourne’s nine-game winning streak. Our review of that match mentioned the Dees ran into a Crows side at the absolute top of their game. They aren’t travelling nearly as well right now.

A few crucial misses and some missed free kicks probably took the four points away from Melbourne on that occasion. They probably won’t need any luck this time, as long as they hold their form. A good weather forecast for Saturday is a positive – as good as they were in the wet against West Coast, they are a far better side in dry conditions. Transition footy is their strength, and they will get ample opportunity to put it on display against a bottom four team.

With no Sam Jacobs to compete with Max Gawn and Brodie Smith and Will Hamill concussed last week, the Crows will find this incredibly tough. Even though Melbourne aren’t the most potent top four side at the moment, they’ve still got plenty of avenues to goal (particularly with Ben Brown finding some form) and a defence that shouldn’t really be troubled by what the Crows can muster.

Melbourne aren’t the kind of team who are able to take their foot off the gas, so they still need to play to a reasonable level here. It’s just hard to see how the Crows put together four quarters good enough to beat them regardless. Perhaps they could catch the Dees napping in the first quarter and gain some confidence early, but it sounds like a fair stretch to think Melbourne aren’t a far better side over 120 minutes.

Pick: Melbourne by 31

AFL Round 22: Gold Coast v Essendon

After last week’s heist against the Bulldogs, we can’t get seduced by the Bombers in this one. It was a 32-point loss on expected score, so we will treat it that way.

Clearly the Suns are a huge step down from the Bulldogs, so the Bombers head into the game as clear favourites. Which Suns team will turn up? They were lucky to avoid a 100-point loss against Melbourne only two weeks ago, then scraped past Carlton in a rather odd stoppage game at the same venue.

Not sure the Suns want another clearance battle here. The Bombers have gone +16 (against the Bulldogs) and +8 (Swans) in their past two games so they won’t mind plenty of stoppages. Essendon are 3rd overall for stoppage scoring differential this season. The Suns are 15th, so they will have to win a different way.

So the Suns need a turnover game – their four best turnover score differentials have all been wins, and they haven’t won a match this season with a negative differential. Melbourne, Brisbane and the Bulldogs have been able to expose them in this area recently. North Melbourne and Port Adelaide have done the same. Big question mark on whether their turnover game is strong enough against Essendon here.

The Bombers boast the superior stoppage game as well as a few more weapons through the midfield and forward line if the Suns manage to make it a turnover battle. A spike in form from Gold Coast (coinciding with a dip from Essendon after being up for a while) gives them a chance, but still have to pick the Dons in this one.

Pick: Essendon by 19

AFL Round 22: Fremantle v West Coast