- Retrospectivity, and why it makes Brownlow Medal betting so different
- Most sports betting is like poker… the Brownlow Medal is more like chess
Welcome to Brett’s Brownlow Breakdown. In the lead up to Sunday’s Brownlow Medal, Brett – the man behind our new Total Brownlow membership – will share his key thoughts on Brownlow Medal betting.
Today in Part 1, he looks at what makes Brownlow Medal betting so different to almost all other sports betting.
The most important aspect of Brownlow Medal betting is that it’s a purely retrospective event.
When modelling, pricing and betting sports – any sport – the only thing that keeps me up at night is inside information.
By that I mean information that isn’t known by anybody, and therefore can’t be modelled. That might be a number of things… an injury, a change in tactic or approach, a change in line-up… anything that is totally “out of the blue” for an upcoming event and therefore cannot possibly be taken into account in a pricing model.
I can’t contend with proprietary information that isn’t known outside of its inner circle.
The Brownlow? There’s none of that. None of the uncertainty. It’s completely retrospective.
Think about it: the Brownlow medal has already been run, and won. We might not yet by privy to how many votes each player gets, but after round 23 of the season – which was a month ago – there are no more curve balls that can be thrown at it.
(Well… I guess there’s conspiracy theories about the voting process and security of the votes, but we’ll leave them alone!)
— SuperFooty (AFL) (@superfooty) September 8, 2021
Brownlow Medal Betting
While most sports betting is like playing heads-up poker against a bookmaker (or another punter), I’d describe the Brownlow Medal as more like playing chess. We already know what’s on the chess board – it’s already revealed to all parties.
So really, it’s just a modelling and pricing problem… though there are, of course, a hell of a lot of pieces on the board.
I’m much more comfortable going to toe-to-toe, model versus model, with a bookmaker or another punter when I know the competitor can’t have information that is unknown to me.
It’s probably the biggest draw card when it comes to betting on the Brownlow Medal.
Other than that, there’s also the usual factors that are in play when you’re talking about any proposition markets presented by bookmakers: there’s just not enough effort put into them by bookmakers. They’re the softer area of sports books and not generally something that is priced sharply. The markets are presented so that the bookie can be a “one-stop” shop for punters, where they can place every bet they could ever want, rather than having them go to a competitor. You could almost call them retention tools for bookmakers.
Taking this betting action from punters and having the markets available keeps the punters in their shops, where they can then go and load-up on other, bigger markets that might be better priced.
So accurate pricing isn’t really the game with prop markets… and we can take advantage of that.