Welcome to Part 2 of Brett’s Brownlow Breakdown. In the leadup to Sunday’s Brownlow Medal, Brett – the man behind our Total Brownlow package – will share his key thoughts on betting on the Brownlow medal.
Let’s look at where the value is in Brownlow markets.
Almost all Brownlow markets are group markets, where the bookmakers put a group of players together – based on any range of reasons – and take bets on who will get the most votes.
The ‘main race’, if you like, is the Brownlow Medal itself. But it’s only one overall race, from which the bookies only extract a few markets: win, place, top 3 (trifecta), top 10, etc.
So from here, the bookies construct endless numbers of group markets, where they can group players together and price them, giving their punters more options for betting.
If you don’t have much of an idea about how group markets work or how they’re constructed, and you don’t have any real educated opinion on what the price should be, the number one thing I would say is this:
Avoid anything that’s priced in double figures. Anything over $10.
That’s a very, very simple rule that through experience, we’ve found should be applied to any group market across basically all sports betting.
In our experience, group proposition markets across many sports and many years have shown to be bad news for the recreational punter who likes to have a flutter at long odds.
Those bets at $12, $15, $20… they’re generally really, really bad bets.
For example, it’s not at all uncommon to see something priced at $20 that – on basic probabilities – should be $200.
The value in any group market tends to reside in the top few picks in the market. As for how it’s broken down across those picks, there’s really no rhyme or reason for how that works.
The value might be in the favourite, or the third favourite… but it’s always away from the tail end of the market.
As for what we’ll be betting with Total Brownlow, it will be any and every market. All the modelling work is done and we’re able to price markets as they’re released. Brownlow markets are almost drip-fed, in that there’s more and more markets added through the weeks and days, right up to Sunday night. As more markets are launched, we can price them quickly, find the value and add any good bets into our list of bets. There’s really nothing we can’t price.
The enormous number of markets offered by bookies on the Brownlow – there’s literally hundreds – means there’s a lot to get through. And the way they’re priced means there is a lot of poor value propositions to exclude. But it also means there’s plenty of value in there too. You just have to be in a position to find it. Our model allows us to do that easily. It puts us in a great position.