Thanks to Kvitova going down for us we are now winning 15.65 units in the first 3 weeks of 2012 with an overall strike rate of 56% from 46 trades. That’s an excellent profit on turnover in anyone’s language, but to be honest the strike rate is down on our average and we believe we can do much better – and with NRL and AFL season not far away, we are well placed for another big year. The year to date results can be seen on this page. On to today’s analysis: TENNIS Novak Djokovic(SRB) Rank 1 VS Andy Murray(GBR) Rank 4 Head to Head Matches Novak Djokovic leads 6-4, but Murray leads 4-2 from last 6 inlc their last match at Cincinnati last Aug when Djokovic retired with the score at 6-4 3-0 COMMENT: Ferrer was pathetic in not being able to put away a struggling Djokovic on Wed.. Had the Serb been playing Murray, Federer or Nadal it is doubtful if he would still be in the tournament. The fascinating aspect of this intriguing match is Djokovic’s fitness, as he will need to be 100% to beat Murray who is in great form and does not have the concern of choking in a slam final. Djokovic has said that he does not have any physical issues, but clearly something was wrong and it remains to be seen if it returns, whatever it was, we certainly do not wish to take 1.43 to find out. STAKING PLAN: We are having an excellent month and now that Kvitova has kindly bowed out for us, there is little point undoing our good work and risking Djokovic further although he only loses us 2.88 units if he wins his next 2 matches. Our aim to try and do what we did with Berdych and put a back bet in for him at 2.44 for 2 Units which will scratch out our initial trade. We will achieve this if either Murray tonight or Nadal on Saturday night can win the first set. A scratch trade is a good trade as we had an opportunity to win. Our fundamental philosophy is always to make small regular profits and minimize losses which will yield us a big profitable year. (3)Victoria Azarenka(BLR) VS (4)Maria Sharapova(RUS) Head to Head Matches Tied 3-3 These two grunters have not met since Rome (clay) last May when Sharapova won after losing the 1st set and Aza retired. Azarenka won the previous 2 matches on hard court. COMMENT: It will be a surprise if this game does not go 3 sets, but given both ladies tend to have a heart attack when they see the winning post; we suggest exotics may be the best way to go. Remember that Sharapova has a 96% win record when she wins the first set, and both ladies will get nervous trying to serve out for the set or match. They are actually better off receiving so they cannot double fault. Sharapova has done a remarkable job to make the final given her shoulder injury and how dedicated she has been to make it back as fit as she is. It would be wise to not place too much emphasis on her form over the last 12 months, but she is certainly back as good as ever now. She could not buy a first serve against Kvitova and would have won easily with a better display, and it looms again as the main excuse for her here if she is beaten. Azarenka has as much talent as any player, but this is new ground for her and she has shown in the past that she is a nervous wreck on big points, and this will be her biggest mountain ever. It is hard to be enticed by her skinny odds which are influenced by results from the last year which we have suggested could be misleading. The statistical probability needs to be weighted with Sharapova’s shoulder injury. STAKING PLAN: Nothing in the plan, but if members wish to have an interest, you should bet that the match will go 3 sets, and or, back Sharapova if she wins the first set providing she is beaten in set 2 and if she is $2.00 or better. QUOTE: “Her movements around the court and her attitude have changed so much in the last 12 months.” Rennae Stubbs, Channel 7 commentator discussing Victoria Azarenka. Pending tennis bets: Traders: Lay Djokovic at 2.44 for 2 units and we will see where we are later. Punters: Lay Djokovic for 2 units @ 2.44 and cheer for Murray in the semi.
FOOTBALL: Game: Gold Coast v Central Coast Mariners League: A-League Time: 8.00pm AEDT 9.00 am GMT Betfair Market: Match odds Top of the league plays bottom of the league and we can only see one result. Central Coast have won 8 of their last 10 away matches and they have won the first half in 11/19 away matches. There have been +1.5 goals in 5/9 Gold Coast Utd home matches against top-half teams. The Gold Coast are better than their position portrays however the Mariners are on a mission and will see this as a must win to keep their run going. Confidence is battered as far as the Gold Coast go. It doesn’t help when players don’t know what is happening with their contracts and playing futures beyond this season. Could prove to be an arm wrestle but at even money, we will take the Mariners all day. Especially when the statistics show they should be 1.25. Back Central Coast for 3 units @ 2.00 and lay 5.22 units @ 1.15 Rating 160 Cricket – Big Bash Final Sat Jan 28 Perth Scorchers v Sydney Sixers Western Australia Cricket Association Ground, Perth 23 – 39° C COMMENT: If we take a line on the last time these two teams played each other, the Scorchers have plenty in their favour. The game was played at the 6s home ground at the SCG on Jan 18, only nine days ago, and the locals won the toss, batted first and won by only a single run after Mitch Starc had a blinder claiming 3 wickets (S. Marsh, M. Marsh and Collingwood) for 28 runs. The Final will be different at the WACA in very hot conditions (39 deg) in front of a biased sold out crowd. The Scorchers would be confidant about running down the 6s this time at home, especially as Mitch Marsh went for a duck last time they met, but if the locals can win the toss and bat first, it is hard to see the Sydney team winning as they are not over strong early with batting. We are already 7 Units up on the BBL, and do not like to invest in these games, but if you would like an interest our suggestion is to back whoever wins the toss at the team facing first has won 70% of the games. We think the current market odds are a fair representation. Champion Profits – sports trading and analysis.