election betting, topsport podcast episode 11

Want to bet the US Election with an edge? Brett’s Betting Syndicate has been working hard to build a profitable solution, and you can benefit. With Election Edge, you’ll receive best bets and full rated prices for the Presidential race, Senate, House, Popular vote, State by state, and all Group markets.

Click here for more information.


For a different view, this guide to US Election betting was put together by the folks at Bet Refinery. For Part 1 of the series, on arbitrage betting, click here.

Donald Trump vs Joe Biden is the biggest betting market of all time.

As we write this article, nearly $500 million has been traded on Betfair. And that number will likely finish above $700 million.

When the winner is determined. We’ll think one of two things:

1. Donald Trump is invincible, and of course the US re-elected him; or

2. Joe Biden was the best betting opportunity of 2020 and we should have gone harder

The data suggests the latter.

Why Joe Biden wins. Easily.

All of the data, since before Donald Trump was even elected, has been against the current President.

When Trump and Clinton challenged each other for the 2016 presidency, they were the least popular candidates ever.

Trump won the Electoral College system (the one that counts), but Clinton recorded more total votes.

Despite becoming President, Trump’s approval rating on the polls has never been above 50%.

Biden has also been smashing Trump in the polls.

On fivethirtyeight, the latest national poll shows a Biden margin of +8.6.

That’s greater than Clinton vs Trump, when she started as a deserving $1.20 favourite.

So why Is Biden only $1.50?

The Trump card.

We discussed this previously, but Trump is like Conor McGregor. He attracts all of the recreational money.

How often do you see the TAB intentionally sticking out above Betfair to lay bets? They simply can’t escape the weight of money for Donald Trump.

Other bookies all around the world have the same issue and you can see that in their odds. And when their liabilities become too scary for the part-time political trader, what do they do? They offload the liability on Betfair.

So this is a rare occasion when the Betfiar market doesn’t correlate to the exact implied probability of winning. The Wisdom of Crowds doesn’t apply because there’s a lot of money being bet by people without a great deal of wisdom.

They back Trump because he has brash charisma. Because he’s had the underdog win before. He has the brand, the reputation.

So the money says he’s a one in three chance of doing it again. But the data just doesn’t back that up.

Trump clinched every close swing state that he needed to in 2016. In 2020, Joe Biden just has to steal a few of those back. Like Pennsylvania, the state he was born in. Or Wisconsin:

Trump stole some of the Democratic hubs in 2016 because he spoke to their overlooked population. But did he help them during his Presidency? Did he do enough to protect them against COVID-19?

America hasn’t been more politically divided in recent history, but we just don’t think Trump has grown his base. He had genius marketing in 2016, firing up a niche American population that has been neglected by politicians. And a Hilary Clinton scandal peaked right before voting began, yet she still won the popular vote.

She was also weaker in the polls than Biden is in 2020.

Lastly, fivethirtyeight make Biden a $1.12 chance with their predictive model floating around 89%.

Election betting: Conclusion

$1.50 for Joe Biden is overs. It’s huge (“yyyyuge”) value.

But if you’re still scared of Trump, the smart play is the margin betting.

Bet like the polls and predictive models are accurate and this will be a Biden landslide.

For example:

  • Biden to get 58-60.99% of the Popular Vote is roughly $18.00.
  • Trump to record 180-209 College Votes is roughly $6.00.
  • Trump to record 150-179 College Votes is roughly $8.50.

If Trump’s odds of winning weren’t propped up by recreational money, those betting options would be half the price they currently are.

So Back Biden.

And back him to win by 10 goals.

Just like you’re backing an AFL team to win by 40+. That’s the winning margin that has the most value in the 2020 US Election.

Want to bet the US Election with an edge? Brett’s Betting Syndicate has been working hard to build a profitable solution, and you can benefit. With Election Edge, you’ll receive best bets and full rated prices for the Presidential race, Senate, House, Popular vote, State by state, and all Group markets.

Click here for more information.

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