EPL Week 3 preview: Chelsea v Burnley

Chelsea have started the season in near-perfect style with three wins (two league and one cup). I say ‘near’ as they have been unable to keep a clean sheet in any of those games, which I am sure will not have pleased their new manager, Antonio Conte.

They conceded a goal apiece to West Ham and Watford, which may ultimately be acceptable, but to then concede two at home to Bristol Rovers (with a relatively strong side) must be seen as a disappointment.

Burnley’s surprise win against Liverpool last weekend set the record for the lowest match possession of any winning side in the Premier League since the statistic has been recorded. With just 19% possession their tactics were and remain clear – contain, contain, attack on the counter, contain, contain – and with two goals from just three shots, you have to say they executed this plan flawlessly against Liverpool.

One thing is clear though: we should not be expecting lots of goals in any games involving Burnley this season. Two seasons ago, when they were last in the Premier League, Burnley scored just 28 times (14 home and 14 away). All seven of the games they won that season were by a single goal margin. Even the games that they lost – of which there were plenty – nine were by just a single goal, and a further eight were by two goal margins. In fact, just two of their 19 defeats had more than a two goal margin. Their tactics this season do not look any different to two years ago.

To reinforce these points, last weekend’s result was the first time in 15 Premier League games that Burnley had managed to score two goals in a game.

A Chelsea Win to Nil (1.91 with Sportsbet) looks on the cards in the early hours of Sunday morning.

Those of you who like to look outside the main markets would do well to consider the corner handicaps for this game too. Chelsea have conceded only one corner so far, winning the most corners in both of their games – by a total aggregate of 12 to 1.

Burnley did get the most corners against Swansea (7-4), but conceded 12 to Liverpool (winning just one) in their last match.

At the time of writing the markets aren’t available, but if Chelsea are a decent price for either most corners or giving up a handicap of -4.5, then this could be worth further consideration.

The Soccer Advisor service consistently finds good value betting into the world’s biggest soccer markets such as the English Premier League and Champions League.