Footy Line Betting Review: July 17

• AFL line betting: St Kilda break the drought, but it’s not enough to save the coach
• NRL line betting: Sea Eagles cover again… but fall agonisingly short of victory

AFL

It’s fair to say the AFL betting market had a shocker this week. While there were a few close-run things, they paled into insignificance against the blowouts:

• • Sydney were favoured by 26.5 points against Carlton, who saluted by seven points
  • Brisbane were actually given a 15.5-point head start against Port Adelaide… and won by 48 points!
  • Adelaide were given just a 35.5 handicap over against Gold Coast, going on to win by a lazy 95 points

Out of mid-air from Matt Crouch!#AFLSunsCrows pic.twitter.com/aNDXu5JMWj

— AFL (@AFL) 13 July 2019

We highlighted St Kilda’s woeful run against the line last week, where they’d failed to cover in their past ten matches. Surprisingly, they broke the duck against Geelong this week, going down by 27 points on a head start of 42.5. As we’ve said before however, there’s few punters in AFL club boardrooms… it wasn’t enough to save coach Alan Richardson’s job.

Game to watch this week…

• St Kilda (+16.5) vs Western Bulldogs (-16.5): as our analysis from the Carlton coaching change showed, clubs have a very good record at the line after a coach is sacked. Can the Saints continue this trend.

NRL

Despite their recent run of form, the bookies continued to underrate both the Sea Eagles and Storm in round 17.

• • Manly were +2.5 outsiders against the Bunnies and fell just short of claiming a tough victory
  • Melbourne were asked to cover 10.5 points and finished all over the Sharks to win by 24 in Cameron Smith’s record-breaking 400^th game
  • The Cowboys produced one of the performances of the season to knock off the Roosters and easily cover the +12.5 starting line

Jake Clifford kicks the @nthqldcowboys in front 🎯#NRLRoostersCowboys 13-12 🤠#TelstraPremiership pic.twitter.com/ZWweAa34pL

— NRL (@NRL) 14 July 2019

The flipside of all that sees the Bunnies slip to 6-1-9 against the line for the season to sit 12^th on the line ladder… despite holding down a top two spot in the league standings.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, locked their season away at 8-8 against the line (and put themselves within reach of a finals berth in the process) with their huge win over flag fancies Sydney.

Game to watch this week…

New Zealand (+1.5) vs Cronulla (-1.5): the Warriors are outsiders, at home, but have covered the line nine times this season compared to the Sharks’ six.