Footy betting, line betting, afl analysis, AFL round 20. afl finals week 1
  • AFL line betting: St Kilda break the drought, but it’s not enough to save the coach
  • NRL line betting: Sea Eagles cover again… but fall agonisingly short of victory


It’s fair to say the AFL betting market had a shocker this week. While there were a few close-run things, they paled into insignificance against the blowouts:

    • Sydney were favoured by 26.5 points against Carlton, who saluted by seven points
    • Brisbane were actually given a 15.5-point head start against Port Adelaide… and won by 48 points!
    • Adelaide were given just a 35.5 handicap over against Gold Coast, going on to win by a lazy 95 points

We highlighted St Kilda’s woeful run against the line last week, where they’d failed to cover in their past ten matches. Surprisingly, they broke the duck against Geelong this week, going down by 27 points on a head start of 42.5. As we’ve said before however, there’s few punters in AFL club boardrooms… it wasn’t enough to save coach Alan Richardson’s job.

Game to watch this week…


Despite their recent run of form, the bookies continued to underrate both the Sea Eagles and Storm in round 17.

    • Manly were +2.5 outsiders against the Bunnies and fell just short of claiming a tough victory
    • Melbourne were asked to cover 10.5 points and finished all over the Sharks to win by 24 in Cameron Smith’s record-breaking 400th game
    • The Cowboys produced one of the performances of the season to knock off the Roosters and easily cover the +12.5 starting line

The flipside of all that sees the Bunnies slip to 6-1-9 against the line for the season to sit 12th on the line ladder… despite holding down a top two spot in the league standings.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, locked their season away at 8-8 against the line (and put themselves within reach of a finals berth in the process) with their huge win over flag fancies Sydney.

Game to watch this week…

New Zealand (+1.5) vs Cronulla (-1.5): the Warriors are outsiders, at home, but have covered the line nine times this season compared to the Sharks’ six.


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