In the AFL, Carlton’s up-and-down market form continued on the weekend despite another ‘honourable loss’, while Melbourne’s season went from bad to worse with another hiding to be easily the worst market side of the season to date.
In the NRL, the Sea Eagles took top spot and are building more trust with punters each week, while the Eels are fast becoming a ‘steer clear’ side.
Check out how your side went in this week’s footy betting market review.
Things are fairly steady at the top of the AFL table at the moment – Carlton continuing to be the big story in third place. Despite some absolute wallopings, they’re still managing to cover a majority of lines, sneaking over by 0.5 points against St Kilda at the weekend.
The story that’s still developing at the other end is the absolute shemozzle of a season that Melbourne are enduring. They’re now a net aggregate of -233 points against the line in their ten matches. The next worse is now Brad Scott-less North Melbourne at -95.
Melbourne versus the line this year are -58.5, -69.5, -33.5, +25.5, -55.5, -29.5, +11.5, -17.5, +8.5 and -14.5. It’s not pretty.
Of course, this isn’t just a measure of how they’re travelling, but how accurately the betting market is rating them. Clearly, bookies and punters aren’t ready to properly recognise just how badly Melbourne are tracking. They were given an 11.5 point head start over GWS at the weekend and lost by 26, in what was actually one of their more positive results for the season.
The line ladder is starting to even out in similar fashion to the actual ladder now, with the bottom four market sides sitting 16th, 14th, 13th and 15th, respectively, in the league.
There remain a couple of outliers, however, with the Storm (2nd in the league) still languishing down in 11th against the market, and the Tigers (10th) sitting 3rd with 7 covers from 11 starts.
Despite their last-start struggles, Canberra has the best +/- of any side against the spread with 64.5, while the Panthers are still by far the furthest off the market pace with -94.5. That was helped a little by a tough win against Parramatta on the weekend.
The Eels have been tough to watch in the last three weeks and are quickly becoming a no-go zone for punters, while at the other end of the spectrum it’s the Sea Eagles that continue to build trust with consistent performances each week.
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