• AFL line betting: thrashings mean movement on the line ladder
  • NRL line betting: teams circling the Sea Eagles

AFL

Change at the top of the AFL line ladder this week, as Brisbane took top spot off Carlton with yet another commanding performance, this time against neighbours Gold Coast. They clobbered the -58.5 point closing line, winning by 91 points to shoot well clear.

The weekend was marked by some enormous thrashings, which sent some clubs moving considerably up and down the line ladder. The closing line for Essendon vs Bulldogs was out by a whopping 96.5 points, with GWS vs Hawthorn out 70.5 and Geelong vs North Melbourne out 34.5.

Melbourne missed their line again (though this time only by 5.5 points) and are now glued to the bottom of the line ladder, 3 matches adrift of the rest of the competition.

Games to watch this week
  • Fremantle (-14.5) vs Essendon (+14.5): Essendon are in appalling form, missing their last three lines by 20.5, 67.5 and 96.5 points. Will the betting market catch them this week? With just a 14.5 point headstart, quite possibly not. Fremantle could be a good thing here.
  • Richmond (-10.5) vs West Coast (+10.5): Yes, the Tigers are flying, but West Coast’s credentials are obvious to all. And in six trips to Melbourne in 2019, the Eagles have only missed their line once. So while Richmond are deserved favourites, forms suggest that West Coast with an extra 10.5 points might make a good bet.

NRL

The Sea Eagles failed to cover for just the sixth time this season as their opponents, the Warriors, climbed to 6th on the NRL Line Ladder.

Ominously, the top four spots on the Line Ladder are now occupied by the teams sitting 5th, 3rd, 1st and 2nd on the league ladder, respectively, as we get stuck right into the business end of the year.

Souths are the exception, sitting 14th on the Line Ladder after a tough defeat at the hands of the Melbourne Storm. Cronulla are the other side who continue to miss for punters, languishing in 15th despite being on the cusp of playing finals.

Games to watch this week
  • Manly (-8) vs Wests Tigers (+8): A host of sides are lining up behind the Sea Eagles, including Wests. Most would expect the home side to bounce back here, hence the heavy favouritism, but is eight points too many?
  • Newcastle (-5.5) vs North Queensland (+5.5):  After sitting in the top four early in the season, the Knights have had a remarkable fall from grace. They now sit 12th on both ladders and are unlikely to play finals, yet they are still 5.5 point favourites here against a side who is above them on the Line Ladder. Are the Cowboys being underrated again?

After 3 straight winning seasons, Steve Green’s NRL Tips is heading for a 4th in 2019.

He's just one half of our Footy Finals service, covering every AFL and NRL game from now until the Grand Final.