Footy betting, line betting
  • AFL line betting: Collingwood sink further, while the new coach does the trick at St Kilda
  • NRL line betting: Manly covered… again, while the Storm debunked the ‘new coach theory’ in rugby league

AFL

Collingwood are under the pump in the media as they approach their blockbuster clash against Richmond this week, and the punters will be asking questions of the Pies as they missed yet another betting line against GWS.

Collingwood were actually given a 3.5 point handicap against the Giants, but went on to lose by 47 points – a 50.5 point miss that saw them slump to second-last on the season line ladder. They’ve now missed the line in six of their past eight matches, and have only covered six times all year. They’re a clear “avoid” for punters.

Meanwhile their opponents this week, Richmond, are quietly going about their business, having covered the line in their last four matches by a whopping average of 27 points. They’re not getting much respect from the betting market… but that may be about to change.

Elsewhere, the new coach impact proved itself once again, as St Kilda smashed their line by 41 points in Brett Ratten’s first game at the helm.

Game to watch this week…
  • Richmond (-9.5) vs Collingwood (+9.5) on Friday night. The Tigers have been thumping their lines, is a 9.5 point buffer big enough?
  • St Kilda (+3.5) vs Melbourne (-3.5). The Saints have put together two covers in a row, while Melbourne remain at the bottom and have had four straight weeks of misses. Should the Dees really be favoured?

NRL

The Sea Eagles remain clear atop the line ladder, with five teams stuck all having 10 covers next to their name as the chasing pack.

No surprises to see the Storm cover again, with the market seemingly overrating the Gold Coast’s chances after a change in coach last week.

The new coach bounce is real in the AFL, but doesn’t look like it has the same effect in rugby league…

The Panthers are humming along and continued their rich vein of form with a thumping of lowly St. George, giving their for-and-against a much-needed boost. They sit at 8-7 against the line with two pushes, but with a +/- of -35.5 after a poor start to the year.

Game to watch this week…
  • Cronulla (-4.5) take on North Queensland (+4.5) with the Sharks potentially being overrated by the market once again. The Cowboys were well-beaten last week against one of the comp favourites, but their form had been much better than that prior.
  • The Storm (-8.5) host Manly (+8.5) in a line match-up of 3rd and 1st. Given the Sea Eagles tendency to cover in 70% of their matches this year to date, is 8.5 too many points… even against the Storm in Melbourne?

After 3 straight winning seasons, Steve Green’s NRL Tips is heading for a 4th in 2019.

He's just one half of our Footy Finals service, covering every AFL and NRL game from now until the Grand Final.