Footy betting, line betting
  • AFL line betting: Western Bulldogs the Punters’ Premiers
  • NRL line betting: Sea Eagles forge clear at the top

AFL

The home and away season is done and just like the league ladder, there was plenty of late movement on the line ladder.

Ultimately the Bulldogs took it out and became the “Punters’ Premiers”. They continued their stunning late-season form, comfortably overcoming the 17.5 impost they were saddled with by beating the Crows by 34 points. They covered the line in nine of their last ten matches of the season to storm up the line ladder and take it out.

So what did we learn? The Bulldogs story is one example of what would appear to be a wider trend: the betting market can be extremely slow to react to changes in form. At the start of the year, the Bulldogs were struggling, and the lines eventually adjusted accordingly. But while they recovered to post some far better results in the second half of the season, the market clearly didn’t react quickly enough, and consistently underrated them.

It was visible in different examples too, such the consistent underrating of Carlton – particularly early in the season, when the Blues may not have been winning but were much more reliable at the line than they were given credit for.

At the other end, Melbourne were continually overrated by the market – no doubt on the back of a super 2018 – yet continued to show week after week that they were incapable of meeting those expectations. The market never quite got its head around just how poor they were in 2019. Perhaps it will in 2020, by which time it may be too late… or the Dees may have recovered some form!

NRL

The Sea Eagles forged clear by two games with two rounds remaining, with only the Roosters able to hunt them down from here.

After a strong mid-season run for punters, the Storm have started to slide in recent times, and were unable to cover the massive -22.5 line against the lowly Titans on Sunday. It was only the Gold Coast’s sixth cover for the year.

The Knights, who were once a top-four prospect this season, have had a remarkable fall from grace and the weekend saw a new low after a 42-point drubbing by the Tigers. Wests incidentally moved into fourth in the Line Ladder standings.

Game To Watch This Week:

Warriors (+5.5) v Rabbitohs (-5.5): The Kiwi side sits eighth at 12-10 against the line, while the Bunnies sit 14th at just 8-1-13 this season. So why are Souths 5.5 point favourites here? Has the market overreacted to the Warriors getting belted by the Sharks last week on the road?

After 3 straight winning seasons, Steve Green’s NRL Tips is heading for a 4th in 2019.

He's just one half of our Footy Finals service, covering every AFL and NRL game from now until the Grand Final.