- AFL line betting: The betting market refuses to give up on the Demons
- NRL line betting: Manly cover yet again and Canberra’s surge continues
The betting market just can’t let go of the Demons.
Time and time again this year, Melbourne have let people down. But still, as we approach Round 20, there seems to be a feeling of “maybe they’ll get it together this week?”
They were rated favourites yet again on the weekend, with the Brett Ratten-led Saints given a 1.5 point head start. In fairly predictable scenes, St Kilda got over the line comfortably. Melbourne remained stuck to the bottom of the line ladder and have now missed their betting lines by a combined 305 points this year – more than double the next worst, Collingwood, on 127 points.
While this of course suggests major issues at the Demons, it also points to a major failure of the betting market this season… Melbourne have been overrated over and over again. And it continues, despite their woeful showings on matchday.
Games to watch this week…
- Melbourne (+28.5) vs Richmond (-28.5). Richmond have put their injury woes behind them and comfortably covered the line in their last five outings. We don’t need to say much more about how Melbourne have been going. 28.5 points is a healthy buffer… but could the Tigers really feast on the Demons here?
- Collingwood (-37.5) vs Gold Coast (+37.5). Yes, Gold Coast are glued to the bottom of the league ladder and belong there. Though they have shown a few more signs in the past couple of weeks, covering their last two lines with more competitive performances. A 38-point head start against a Collingwood side that has, conversely, missed it’s past two lines and isn’t exactly setting the world on fire? That might tempt a few punters…
The Sea Eagles’ grip on top spot in our line ladder tightened with a thrilling 11-10 win over the Storm in Melbourne. Of course, the 8.5 points head-start turned out to be far too many.
Canberra moved into the top four on the league ladder with a tough away win over the in-form Panthers, moving into second spot on the line ladder in the process with the market seemingly slow to adjust to their form.
Despite falling two points short of victory against the Eels, the Warriors covered again and are now sitting a cover clear in fourth on the line ladder, despite sitting 12th in the league.
Games to watch this week…
- New Zealand (+3.5) host Canberra (-3.5) in a top four line ladder battle. Both sides have covered the line 11 times in 2019, and the market has them close in this one as well. A tie would be the fairest result according to our numbers, so the +4 available with a couple of bookies could come into play!
- Cronulla (+1.5) and South Sydney (-1.5) sit 15th and 13th respectively on the line ladder, with the market consistently overrating them so far this year. The match is expected to be close from a punting perspective and with just 13 covers from 36 combined games in 2019, it certainly will be an intriguing battle… even if it’s not a betting proposition.