GWS head west this week riding a high after just towelling up reigning Premiers Hawthorn by 75 points at home in Round 6. They have been in excellent form as a unit this year, with Callan Ward leading by example as a standout player thus far. Their offense has also looked significantly more potent after getting Jeremy Cameron back in the side, and he will once again be looking for a big bag of goals this week against a rather depleted Fremantle backline. The promising sign from GWS this year is the quality of their depth and their ability to cover for player injuries. They will be without gun midfielder Ryan Griffen and small forward Devon Smith for several more weeks, but the replacements for these players have shown to be more than capable and they are getting the job done and then some, as we saw with their demolition of the Hawks last week.
Fremantle on the other hand have been struggling this year. While they have been hit hard by injuries in the previous few weeks, losing key stars Nat Fyfe and Aaron Sandilands, even when they had close to a full side on the pitch in the earlier rounds they did not look like the same team that won the Minor Premiership in the 2015 season. An ageing list at key positions and a struggle to adapt to the changing game may be factors that have seen them placed at the bottom of the ladder as at the end of Round 6, but whatever the reasons the Freo hopeful will be praying their first win isn’t far off.
The graphs below look at the player ratings for these two teams, comparing their projected aggregate player rating versus their actual output, based on our calculations. The patterns that come out of this tell the story of the season so far; Fremantle for the most part has consistently underperformed to expectations, and a result we have been gradually downgrading their player ratings in our calculations as the current year data rolls into the model. On the other hand, GWS has mainly been either meeting their expected player rating or outperforming it, especially in the last two weeks (the two weeks they have had Jeremy Cameron back in the side – coincidence?).
Taking a further look at the player ratings breakdown of each team, the graph below shows the split of players at each category of skill level, ranging from Elite to D Grade (note these categories are benchmarked based on the players rating assigned in our model). This graph is extremely telling of the advantage that GWS has all over the ground, with six elite players compared to zero for Fremantle.
Taking all the above into account, we are predicting a comfortable victory for the Giants away from home, with our predicted margin of victory being close to six goals. See below for our rated price and suggested bet for this game.
Note: This tip was released to paid subscribers last night. At the time of release the market was GWS -20.5. The market will commonly move after our tips have been released, the extent to which will depend on the volume of bets taking the other side.
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