India v Australia: Matt’s Preview

Australia once again attempt to scale cricket's Everest: India in India. Matt has his full preview and best bets.

Australia are the next team to attempt the impossible. Beating India in their backyard is proving to be such, especially for the non-Asian teams. If Pakistan toured and got some luck, they could probably trouble this Indian side, but that isn’t going to happen due to politics.

England played quite well over there before Christmas and a series scoreline of 4-0 from 5 games reflects just how hard it is.

I cannot see anything here but a convincing Indian win.

The Aussie spinners had terrible economy rates in the warm-up game and they will likely struggle even further to contain the highest level Indians. This means the seamers will be forced to bowl longer spells in the heat and will result in India winning convincingly. I haven’t even got to the Indian spin duo, or the fact that England won 4 tosses out of 5.

The media may not see it this way, but 3-0 India is an acceptable score for Australia, and 2-1 or 3-1 is excellent. I’d be pretty surprised if they didn’t get whitewashed. I just don’t see how they’re going to be able to exert enough pressure on the Indians in the field, or score enough with the bat. The games in which they lose the toss are almost over instantly, and the games they win the toss are still so tough to turn into positive results. The only way it isn’t 4-0 is bad weather, pitches that don’t turn too much, or Starc having a crazy Test. The handicaps with Bet365 are must backs too. It’s a shame that all other bookies are such poor prices for 3-0 / 4-0.

I really like both skippers to top score for their sides in the series too. You just can’t go beyond Kohli and he will be well up for the fight against Aus. On the other side it seems like a case of there being no-one else.

Best bets (Series):

India to win the series 4-0 $4.33 Bet365 3u
India 3-0 $4.50 Bet365 2u
India -1.5 Tests $1.53 Bet365 4u (take to $1.36)
India -2.5 Tests $2.20 Bet365 3u (take to $1.80)
Kohli top India batsman $2.62 Bet365 2.5u ($2.50 Various)
Smith top Aus batsman $3.25 Bet365, various 2u
Kohli to score more runs than Smith $1.65 Crownbet 2.5u
Smith to score more runs than Warner $1.70 Crownbet 2.5u

The 3-0 series score is between $3.75 – $4.00 if you can’t get on with Bet365 – back India in every game at their SP on the exchanges and roll your winnings up to get on 4-0.

I’m keeping the First Test simple and backing the hosts. There haven’t been any Test matches in Pune before, but it is likely to be the standard Indian deck. If they win the toss, forget it as usual. If Australia win the toss, you’re likely to get a nice price to back India further during the game.

Best bets – First Test:

India to win 1st Test $1.80 Exchanges 2u
India to score a hundred in their first innings $1.50 Bet365 3u

Note that the bets here were sent exclusively to Matt’s Sports Bets members yesterday, and hence prices may have moved.