His team of data scientists identify value bets that consistently beat the bookies. Last year, we caught up with Brett prior to the NFL season to discuss his methodologies.
The techniques they use are quite complex, but this webinar gives you a good look behind the scenes at how they go about finding value bets. Let’s take a look at what Brett had to say before the 2017 NFL season.
So as you can see there is plenty we can take away here.
Brett has made a conscious decision to pivot away from ‘swimming with the sharks’ and attack the ‘softer’ markets instead. It is here that he has found a much bigger edge.
Ancillary markets are easy and lazy bookies think that they are able to get away with how they set these markets. Their models are half-baked and they often offshore their pricing, so there is a big edge to be had.
On top of that, punters have short-term memories and Brett is able to take advantage of that.
For instance many punters like backing the ‘overs’ in a market so they can cheer on their selection. It may be subconscious but it is a common theme across most sport markets.
As a result, bookies can sometimes set these markets with that in mind, and that is where an edge can be found.
Brett and his team are meticulous in what they do – they model absolutely everything, forecasting every single facet of the game to feed into the final results.
For instance, the weather is one of Brett’s biggest obsessions. He will analyse the temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed and direction of the wind relative to the axis of the stadium as a basis.
The weather affects players differently, depending on their field positions, while Brett also analyses the height of stadium walls to see how they interact with wind.
This chance of a player being injured isn’t disregarded either, amongst other things. You could say Brett goes the whole nine yards.
Of course, the journey hasn’t been without speed bumps. In Brett’s own words, sports betting is like navigating a jungle. You need to know your place, bide your time and grow your strengths to ultimately be successful.
There have been many strategies that have failed along the way as well, but they have all been stepping stones to the success he finds today.
Going forward, the markets and the game itself are constantly going to be evolving. Naturally, Brett’s models need to change and adapt accordingly – evolution is key.
Finally, the bookies don’t like to lose, so sustained success over a long period of time will no doubt catch their ire.
There are plenty of ways to avoid being banned – spreading your bets across multiple bookies, mixing things up with cross-sport multis, and of course betting in cash at the TAB are all viable options to prolong your ability to maintain and exploit the markets.
Coming off a hugely successful 2017/18 season, Brett’s team is back with NFL Primetime for what promises to be another action-packed season.
Over $7,300 profit betting into 3 ‘Prime Time’ games each week of the regular season, plus all playoff matches and the Superbowl.
It’s the hottest ticket in town for the greatest show on turf – don’t miss out.