How To Beat The Bookies This NFL Season

The greatest show on turf has kicked off for 2018 and you can take advantage

NFL 2018

It’s a great time of the year to be a sports fan with the AFL Finals, NRL Finals, US Open Tennis, EPL and Spring Carnival all happening right now. With the Australian winter sports winding up their seasons, another major sports league has just started their season and that is the NFL.

NFL has grown in popularity in Australia the past decade with the likes of Ben Graham, Sav Rocca and recently Jarryd Hayne taking their shot at the big time.

In line with that popularity, the bookies are starting to offer more promotions on the sport. We haven’t got a huge number of promotions on the NFL like we get on the AFL and NRL but there are certainly enough to take a good look and see what value is on offer.

Below I’ve described each promotion available on the NFL and which ones you should have a bet on this NFL season.

Key

A+ selection – cracking value
A selection – excellent value (all-time record – 6455 bets @ 21.5% P.O.T.)
B selection – solid value, worth a bet (all-time record – 4095 bets @ 10.7% P.O.T.)
C selection – some value, not worth a bet
D selection – marginal value, not worth a bet
E selection – long-term losing proposition
F selection – absolute shocker

BetEasy

Payout on the 1st and 2nd TD
1st Touchdown Scorer – 2nd Touchdown Scorer Paid as Winner. No maximum stated. No state restrictions listed.
We missed this promotion on this morning’s match but we get another chance to play it on Tuesday with Los Angeles Rams @ Oakland Raiders at 12:20 pm, and possibly next week should they continue with the promotion beyond Week 1.
 
This promotion is a nice bet. Unlike the NRL 1st Try Scorer version of the promotion, which has terrible markets at the moment, the NFL 1st Touchdown Scorer markets are reasonable relative to other bookies. 
 
There is a small advantage to longer prices here, but not much of an advantage. In that situation, I stick with players at the favourites end of the market for a more likely collect. The small increase in value creates nice flexibility and allows you to play any player you like.
 
There is no minimum on this promotion (but be sensible) and there are no state restrictions listed either.
 
Verdict: A selection

Bluebet

NFL Multi Refund
Multi – Bonus Bet 3 out of 4. Max $50. Min $1.20 Per Leg. Min $3 Final Multi Price. Weeks 1-4. Not available to residents of SA.
Bluebet promotions have all become Bonus Bet promotions now. And their multi promotions seem to have more conditions than any other promotion you’ll find! The conditions are relevant in this case because New Orleans Saints are hovering around the $1.20 mark and it is possible to back a multi under $3, so make sure to avoid those two situations. This promotion is available on Weeks 1-4 of the NFL season.
 
Bonus Bets are not as good as Money Back, which has a significant effect on the value. The value on this promotion will depend on the matches each week. Members are provided specific advice on how to play this promotion (if at all) each week. The promotion is not worth a bet this week (C selection). On other weeks, it will be worth a bet.
 
Verdict: B-D selection

Neds

4-Leg Multi Special
Multi – Bonus Bet 3 out of 4. Max $50. Week 1. Not available to residents of SA.
There are no price requirements on Neds multi promotions, which is one way their multi promotions are better than the rest. Apart from that, this is the same promotion as Bluebet, so similar advice applies. This week’s multi is a C selection.
 
Verdict: B-D selection

Palmerbet

Friday Field Goal
Head to Head – Bonus Bet Lose By 3 Points or Less. Max $100. Friday matches. Not available to residents of SA and WA.
Palmerbet had the same two NFL promotions last season. Teams lose by 3 points or less in 10-15% of matches in the NFL, which is a decent number, but the Bonus Bet consolation is not good enough to make this worth a bet.
 
Verdict: D selection

Tuesday Touchdown
Head to Head – Bonus Bet Lead at 3/4 Time But Lose. Max $100. Tuesday matches. Not available to residents of SA and WA.hdown

This happens less often than losing by 3 points, which makes it a slightly worse proposition than the above promotion, but still within the D selection range.
 
Verdict: D selection

Tabtouch

Week 1 Multi Insurance
Multi – Money Back 3 out of 4. Max $50. Min Final Price $2. Week 1 matches. Not available to residents of NSW, SA and VIC.
This is a nice promotion from Tabtouch. There’s no need to worry about the $2 minimum because even the shortest multi is well above it and the Money Back adds nice value. Members are provided with specific advice on how to play this promotion.
 
Verdict: A selection

Ubet

NFL Real Money Back
Head to Head – Money Back Lead at Any Quarter But Lose. Max $50. Weeks 1-2. Not available to residents of NSW.
This happens quite often in the NFL based on the stats, which makes sense given the relatively low number of scoring plays per quarter. The Money Back is good compensation.
 
This promotion is longer the price, the better the bet. Teams less than $1.50 are C selections. Teams from $1.50-$2.30 are B selections with roughies at the high-end of the B selection range. Teams greater than $2.30 are A selections.
 
With 16 matches per week, there’s no shortage of matches to bet on here, so I would stick with teams in the A selection range, and you may not want to play all of them as that may be too many bets on the same promotion.
 
Verdict: A-C selection

Unibet

30% Multi Boost
Multi – 30% Multi Boost on 5+ Leg Multis. Max $20. Min $1.40 Per Leg. Not available to residents of SA.
This promotion is found in the NFL Specials section on the Promotions page. This promotion provides a slightly better price than what you would receive in a fair market. The $1.40 minimum per leg is a bit rough but makes no difference to the value.
 
Verdict: D selection
Good luck for the NFL season,
 
Rod
Rod’s High Low membership has been a juggernaut, boasting 18 straight months of profit and $81,500+ overall since launch in 2015.
 
Take the bookies to the cleaners this weekend on a range of bets across your favourite sports and racing codes. It simply will not lose – there is just nothing else like it on the market.