NRL Line Ladder Round 20
With the NRL finals now approaching, the line ladder has been finalised for 2020 – and with some interesting results!
The big overachiever compared to market expectation was the Warriors.
Pre-season the Kiwi franchise had already been predicted to finish in the bottom few sides, and were quickly given no hope following the COVID outbreak that saw them set up in Tamworth for the entirety of the campaign.
However, a 10th place finish on the NRL ladder was admirable given the circumstances, and the market failed to react to their form.
The Warriors finished third on the line ladder with 12 covers from 20 games – and that comes after failing to cover in three of their first four games.
At the other end, the Eels finish the season in 14th spot on the line ladder despite finishing 3rd on the NRL ladder.
Early on the Eels were underrated by the market, however on this occasion the market DID adjust and well and truly caught up to them.
What’s interesting is that it failed to then re-adjust late in the season when Parramatta’s form slump hit – they covered the line just once in their last nine contests.
In both these instances, the market seemingly made up their own mind about each run of results – that the Warriors were overachieving in games and would revert to the average long-term, while the Eels had underachieved in some games late in the season but would find form again at some stage to balance it out.
Of course, both of these never eventuated and it meant a big edge on the market developed for punters who found it.
So how does this affect 2021?
Using the Warriors as the example, there’s a chance that they are overrated by the market on the back of their efforts this season and their form does indeed drop off, creating an edge backing against the NZ franchise.
Alternatively, the market could stick to its 2020 guns and the Warriors may never ‘revert to the mean’, maintaining the current edge in the process.
The teams that show big discrepancies against the market, such as the Warriors and the Eels, are the ones to watch as a starting point next season. We’ll be back then with the Line Ladder… the NRL ladder for punters!