All league fans keep a close eye on the NRL ladder, but it offers few valuable insights for NRL punters!
From a betting perspective you can learn much more with our NRL Line Ladder.
While the traditional NRL ladder simply records wins and losses, the Line Ladder instead records performance against the closing betting line.
And we’re done for 2021!
There’s no prizes for picking the punter’s best friends. Despite a little late season lull for a few weeks, the Storm absolutely tore the betting market to bits. Flat-staking the Storm at the closing line in 2021 (using a price of $1.90) returned a ridiculous 47% PoT with their 17-5 record.
As for the punter’s biggest enemies, the Warriors endured another tough year… and so did anybody who backed them as they limped to 5-17 at the line.
While last week’s loss to the Eels was uncharacteristic for the Storm, on the betting front it was the third straight line they’ve failed to cover. That points to the market perhaps having caught the Storm, who not long ago sat at 16-1 against the line for the season. They’ve got the Sharks this week, who’ve covered their last three. Brave enough to back against the Storm?
Sharks +9.5
$1.90 with TopSport.
While last week’s loss to the Eels was uncharacteristic for the Storm, on the betting front it was the third straight line they’ve failed to cover. That points to the market perhaps having caught the Storm, who not long ago sat at 16-1 against the line for the season. They’ve got the Sharks this week, who’ve covered their last three. Brave enough to back against the Storm?
Sharks +9.5
$1.90 with TopSport.
On form, there looks to be one good betting opportunity this week. The Cowboys actually started the season reasonably in a betting sense, but the bank half of their year has been terrible. They’ve missed their last four lines and none of their past ten, so they’re definitely in the AVOID bucket. The Dragons missed last week, but covered a couple in a row prior to that, so are in better shape for punters.
Dragons -2
$1.95 with TopSport.
Can we find a winner for the final round of the season? The Dragons vs Roosters clash may present our best option on form, with the Dragons covering their last two closing lines and the Roosters missing both of theirs. You can currently get +12.5 on the Dragons with TopSport.
Top versus bottom tonight when the relentless Melbourne Storm (17 wins and 3 losses against the line) take on the Canberra Raiders (just 6-14).
A couple of very disappointing teams face off on Sunday when the Warriors (6-14 for their backers) take on the Bulldogs (7-13).
Something’s got to give Friday night when the all conquering Storm (covered 16 of 19 games this season) take on the Sea Eagles (also out-performing the market’s expectations with 11 of 19).
Then on Saturday night we have the underperforming Warriors (just 5 wins for their backers from 19 games) take on the Sharks (a very solid 12 of 19).
Storm -18.5
$1.85 with TopSport
The Storm go down! Their closing line against the Cowboys was a whopping -34.5, only for them to just scrape in by 4 points. They now sit 15-3 against the line this season. Which is still… well, reasonable.
Would you bet against them this week? The Panthers are 2-5 at the line over the last seven weeks, so it still looks a good idea to be with Melbourne.
Storm -18.5
$1.85 with TopSport
What more is there to say about the Storm? They were handed a 15.5 point closing line against the Knights… and won 48 – 4. That makes them 15-2 against the line this year. They face the Cowboys this week, who’ve missed their last five lines.
TopSport
Storm -26.5
Not that we should forget the Eels. They’re humming along at 14-3, just a game behind the Storm, and face the battling Raiders.
TopSport
Eels -14.5
Interesting match-ups this weekend:
The Storm have barely put a foot wrong all season, with an incredible 14-2 record at the line. Their opponents this week, the Knights, were battling like few others a few weeks back, when they went 2-9 from Rounds 3-13. But they’ve bounced back somewhat, covering their last three lines. So has the market caught them? Either way, it makes this one a very tough pick…
TopSport
Storm -18.5
Interesting match-ups this weekend:
Is Manly versus the Raiders a no-brainer? Manly have covered 10 of their last 11 lines, including the last three by an average of 30 points! The Raiders are the complete opposite, having missed 10 of their last 11. Sea Eagles at the line, surely.
TopSport
Sea Eagles -14
The Sharks could be a decent bet here. They copped a beating on the weekend, but have pretty solid at the line aside from that. Their opponents, the Warriors, actually covered… but it was only by 0.5 points and it was their first cover in 8 weeks. This looks like favouring Cronulla.
TopSport
Sharks -5.5
Interesting match-ups this weekend:
The Roosters have only covered one line of the past six, while the Storm have only missed two all season.
TopSport
Storm -10.5
The market can’t get a line on the Dragons, who are WLWLWLW against the line over the past seven weeks. They’re doing better than the Warriors however, who now have not covered a line for eight weeks!
TopSport
Dragons +2.5
The market was a little more accurate this week, but punters and bookies alike are still clearly trying to come to terms with exactly where scoring is at. The big shock of the round was, of course, the Doggies and the Dragons, with the former getting a 13.5-point head start before actually winning by 22 points. Obviously it’s a dismal year for Canterbury but that was actually their fourth line cover in a row, so the pendulum has swung and they’re now outperforming the market’s expectations. Not that it’ll be easy this week… they’ve got the Eels, with TopSport currently affording them a 20.5-point headstart. With the Eels sitting second on the Line Ladder, the Doggies might need every point of that… and more.
Origin time always throws up a few surprises, and the shock line result on the weekend was the Storm vs Titans, with Melbourne only recording a six-point win despite a hurdle of 24.5 points. It was a very rare miss, with the Storm having covered their previous ten lines in a row. They’re back into it on Sunday and have a 14.5 hurdle with TopSport to clear against the Warriors, who haven’t cleared a line in their past six starts. But they haven’t been far off either, with their largest miss in that period being 6.5 points. Are the Storm ripe for the picking?
The Sharks are back in town. Against the line, anyway. They were actually handed a 3.5 point head start against the Titans, and ran away with a big 28 point win to smash that line. They’re still sitting in twelfth on the league ladder, but are 7-5 against the line and fifth on the Line Ladder: something to take into account when betting.
On the other side of the coin, tread warily with the Warriors. They’ve now missed six lines in a row as the market continues to overrate them. They’re not missing by heaps, but the pattern can’t be denied.
The Storm just keep rolling… handed a 10.5 point hurdle against the Raiders, they romped to a 24 point win to again easily cover their line. The market just can’t catch them. Their line this week against the Broncos is currently -20.5 with TopSport, which is the biggest they’ve faced since the -28.5 against the hapless Bulldogs back in Round 5 (which they covered).
As for the Raiders, they’ve now missed the line seven weeks in a row… and things don’t get much easier this weekend, as they face the Roosters. They’ve been given an 11.5 point head start by TopSport, with punters probably keen for a few more points if they’re to side with the struggling Raiders. But the Roosters aren’t exactly in sparkling form after being smashed by the Broncos by 18 points, in a result that saw them miss their line by a whopping 44.5 points: that’s the biggest line miss in any NRL game this season.
The obvious (Storm and Parramatta) aside, by the far the most in-form team in the competition is Manly.
In an amazing flip in form, they’ve gone from missing their first four lines to covering the next six in a row. They put an exclamation point on this with their demolition of the Broncos on the weekend, putting an end to Brisbane’s mini run of good form. Handed a 9.5 point hurdle by the market, the Sea Eagles romped in by 44 points.
They face the Eels in a great match-up this weekend… Parra only having missed one line for the whole year. TopSport currently has a 7.5 point headstart for Manly. While it may not look like a hugely close game on paper, recent trends at the line make it a great betting match-up.
The Storm are doing it again… they’ve emerged as the punters’ best friend after Round 9, thanks to their absolute demolition job on Souths (line -8.5, won by 50). They’ve now covered every line for the last seven weeks… not that Souths (6 covers from 7 before the weekend) were doing too badly either!
Another interesting and in-form club is Manly. After missing their first four, they’ve now covered their last five lines in a row – a sure sign the market had written them off far too savagely. They’re favourites this week however, with -8.5 currently on offer for them against the Broncos, who themselves have covered three of their last four.
Starting at the bottom of the Line Ladder this week, it appears that the gap between performance and the market’s expectations is narrowing when it comes to the Bulldogs. They covered their line for the first time this season last week… and while they missed this week, they were only 1.5 points off against the far superior Eels outfit. They’ve been given a 9.5 point head start against the Dragons this week, who are in very poor form when it comes to the line: they’ve missed by 12.5, 15.5 and 17.5 points over the last three weeks.
Similarly, has the market caught the Sharks? Despite having a poor season on face value, they started the year 5-1 against the line… so were providing value for punters. That’s pulled up sharply over the past two weeks, with them falling short at the line by 23.5 points and 9.5 points. In an intriguing matchup this week, they’ve got an 18.5 point headstart against the Panthers… who despite their all-conquering status, are a middling 4-4 against the line this season after three straight misses.
Round 7 was again characterised by results that varied significantly from the market’s closing line. This was again led by the Eels, who made a mockery of the 13.5 point hurdle they were handed against Brisbane, winning by 40 points. Other strong performances were Manly (-4.5 point line, 34 point win) and the Bulldogs, who finally got on the board on the line ladder for 2020! They were handed a massive 17.5 point head start, only to defeat the Sharks by six points.
Some interesting clashes this week, highlighted by…
Souths (-6) are 5-2 at the line, while the Raiders (+6) are 2-5.
Eels (-19.5) are 6-1 at the line, with the Bulldogs (+19.5) at 1-6. Is 19.5 points enough?
The Eels might’ve finally missed a line last week… but they hit back hard. They were actually handed a 3.5 point head start again Canberra, only to make a mockery of the market’s doubts and smash the Raiders by 25 points.
Their hurdle for this week is currently -13.5 points against the Broncos, and you’d be brave to bet against them – even with Brisbane’s vastly improved performance last week. They were given a whopping 27.5 point head start against the Panthers, yet only lost by 8 points.
The club in perhaps the most surprising position is the Sharks. Languishing in 11th on the league ladder, they currently sit third on the line ladder with five covers from six games. They’re getting there by the skin of their teeth, however! They’ve covered both their last two lines by just 0.5 points… the market is reading them quite well.
What about those Roosters?
For the second week in a row they’ve made the betting market look stupid after being installed 10.5 point favourites. They destroyed the Tigers 40-6 to secure their spot at the top of the NRL Line Ladder. They’re just 3.5 point favourites against the Rabbitohs this week, so if you think they’re being underestimated again then get on board!
Also impressive were the Panthers, running out 28-0 winners overs the Bulldogs. This doubled the market’s expectations, which had them as 13.5 point favourites.
The Roosters have inflicted plenty of damage on their opponents, with the Tigers (beaten by the Roosters by 34 points in Round 2) and the Sea Eagles (42 points in Round 1) holding up the bottom of the NRL Line Ladder.
The NRL line ladder is back! This is, of course, the NRL ladder that matters. Rather than simple wins and losses, it measures how each club is performing against the betting market.
We’re just one week in of course, so it’s too early to make any proper conclusions. The runaway winner of the week was definitely the Roosters. Are reports of their demise premature? You’d have to say the market was somewhat confident in the Roosters, handing them a 10.5 point handicap. But it wasn’t nearly enough as they crushed Manly by 42 points to get their backers (including our NRL man Steve Green!) off to a cracking start to the season.
The line ladder has been finalised for 2020 – and with some interesting results!
The big overachiever compared to market expectation was the Warriors.
Pre-season the Kiwi franchise had already been predicted to finish in the bottom few sides, and were quickly given no hope following the COVID outbreak that saw them set up in Tamworth for the entirety of the campaign.
However, a 10th place finish on the NRL ladder was admirable given the circumstances, and the market failed to react to their form.
The Warriors finished third on the line ladder with 12 covers from 20 games – and that comes after failing to cover in three of their first four games.
At the other end, the Eels finish the season in 14th spot on the line ladder despite finishing 3rd on the NRL ladder.
Early on the Eels were underrated by the market, however on this occasion the market DID adjust and well and truly caught up to them.
What’s interesting is that it failed to then re-adjust late in the season when Parramatta’s form slump hit – they covered the line just once in their last nine contests.
In both these instances, the market seemingly made up their own mind about each run of results – that the Warriors were overachieving in games and would revert to the average long-term, while the Eels had underachieved in some games late in the season but would find form again at some stage to balance it out.
Of course, both of these never eventuated and it meant a big edge on the market developed for punters who found it.
So how does this affect 2021?
Using the Warriors as the example, there’s a chance that they are overrated by the market on the back of their efforts this season and their form does indeed drop off, creating an edge backing against the NZ franchise.
Alternatively, the market could stick to its 2020 guns and the Warriors may never ‘revert to the mean’, maintaining the current edge in the process.
The teams that show big discrepancies against the market, such as the Warriors and the Eels, are the ones to watch as a starting point next season. We’ll be back then with the Line Ladder… the NRL ladder for punters!
While the regular NRL ladder simply records wins and losses, the Line Ladder takes the betting market into account and measure performance against the line.
For example, let’s say the Storm were playing the Dragons. The closing line is -9.5 (Storm) and +9.5 (Dragons).
Storm win the game by 20 points.
The Storm covered the line by 10.5 points. So they record 1 cover, and their ‘Final margin v closing line’ figure is 10.5.
The Dragons record 1 miss, and their ‘Final margin v closing line’ figure is -10.5.
Then those figures just accumulate through the season. The ladder is ranked first by covers, then by cumulative margin vs the closing line.
That’s all there is to it. It measures team performance, but in relation to the market. So you get a view of how well the betting market is performing in predicting each team’s results. A good example of this in 2019 was South Sydney. They had a great year, finishing in third position on the NRL ladder at the end of the regular season. But despite looking good in terms of wins and losses, they often fell short of the market’s expectations. They covered the line only ten times in their 24 matches to finish way down in 13th position on the line ladder. They weren’t often a good line betting proposition. That’s the sort of information that is valuable as a punter, and isn’t available on the regular NRL ladder.
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