NRL Ladder

All league fans keep a close eye on the NRL ladder, but it offers few valuable insights for NRL punters!

From a betting perspective you can learn much more with our NRL Line Ladder.

The Line Ladder records wins and losses against the closing betting line.

The NRL Ladder for Punters: How it works

For example, let’s say the Storm were playing the Dragons. The closing line is -9.5 (Storm) and +9.5 (Dragons).

Storm win the game by 20 points.

The Storm covered the line by 10.5 points. So they record 1 cover, and their ‘Final margin v closing line’ figure is 10.5.

The Dragons record 1 miss, and their ‘Final margin v closing line’ figure is -10.5.

Then those figures just accumulate through the season. The ladder is ranked first by covers, then by cumulative margin vs the closing line.

That’s all there is to it. It measures team performance, but in relation to the market. So you get a view of how well the betting market is performing in predicting each team’s results. A good example of this in 2019 was South Sydney. They had a great year, finishing in third position on the NRL ladder at the end of the regular season. But despite looking good in terms of wins and losses, they often fell short of the market’s expectations. They covered the line only ten times in their 24 matches to finish way down in 13th position on the line ladder. They weren’t often a good line betting proposition. That’s the sort of information that is valuable as a punter.

NRL Line Ladder Round 7

At the top of the NRL line ladder, the chasing pack closed in on the Knights with the Panthers, Tigers and Raiders all covering in their respective games. Newcastle started 8-point favourites against the Cowboys but were blown away in emphatic fashion.

The Roosters continued to build on their impressive +/- with another big win,  albeit after a scare from the struggling Dragons. The Storm also received a big boost to their +/- standing with a 50-6 thumping of the Warriors. The New Zealand outfit now find themselves just half a point clear of the Titans at the foot of the line ladder.

The Eels failed to cover again. They now sit in ninth position on the line ladder, despite leading the traditional NRL ladder and looking every bit a premiership threat. It’s a good reminder of what we need to consider when betting the line. It’s not just about how the team is going, it’s about how efficiently the market is rating their chances.

NRL Line Ladder Round 6

The Knights put last week’s hiccup against the Storm firmly behind them this week, with their 21 point win over the hapless Broncos smashing their betting line by 14.5 points. It keeps them comfortably on top of the Line Ladder. They’ve been given a 6.5 point handicap in this week’s game against the lowly Cowboys.

Speaking of the Cowboys… the market is getting them very, very wrong at the moment. After a reasonable start to the season they’ve missed their last three lines by a total of 37 points, a sure sign the market is overrating them.

All of this adds up to the Knights being the bet of the round this week. Will the pattern hold? We shall see…

NRL Line Ladder Round 5

Round 5 of the NRL was a ‘catch-up’ week for the market… it finally caught those teams at either end of the line ladder!

The Knights were the last team to be undefeated at the line in 2020, and the market gave their opponents, the Storm, a 3.5 point headstart on Saturday.

The Storm rampaged to a 14-point win to smash the Knights both on the scoreboard and at the line. The Knights play the battling Broncos this week, while the Storm have a big clash with the Panthers at Campbelltown.

At the other end of the table, the only team that hadn’t covered a line yet his season – South Sydney – finally came through for their backers with a 20-point win over the lowly Titans. The market gave the Titans a 13.5 headstart, which proved to be nowhere near enough.

NRL Line Ladder Round 4

Four weeks into the NRL season, and the Knights rule the roost in terms of line betting. They’re the only team to cover the line in all four of their matches: the market is clearly underrating them this season.

At the other end of the table, the market is yet to catch up with the dismal performances of the Rabbitohs – they’re yet to cover a line in any game this season.

With four straight winning seasons with Champion Bets under his belt, Steve Green is set to continue his success with NRL Tips in 2020. Join now to ensure you don't miss your place in this extremely successful and popular membership.

Tasmanian racing: why it should be on your punting radar – Betting 360 Podcast July 1, 2020

Australian racing is a large and complex beast, and Tasmanian racing is forgotten by punters too often. There are a…Read More

Billy Walters: Rags to riches to prison June 30, 2020

Billy Walters might just go down in history as the most infamous name in high stakes gambling. Walters grew up…Read More

Sample size: how big does it need to be? June 29, 2020

Can a sample tell you if a betting approach is profitable? Sample size… how much is enough? I’ve written previously…Read More