As well as providing his best value bets every week, our NRL guru Steve Green also previews every NRL game for members. Each week on the blog we’ll feature some of his match previews from the eight games. Check out his NRL Round 21 Friday Night Double Preview below.
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NRL Round 21: Raiders v Dragons
The Raiders came crashing back to earth last weekend, after their purple patch of form was shown to be not much more than a mirage.
Against weakened teams that were off their game, the Raiders played disciplined and aggressive footy. But when the Knights controlled the early possession, the Raiders defense was shot to bits.
Wighton was horrible and his poor ’21 form is finally being called out by the media. When the unhappy camp rumours swirled around the Raiders, there were some that said Wighton was one that was not too happy, and his form and attitude does indicate something is not right.
In 16 games, Wighton has 4 tries, 6 try assists, 3 line breaks and 6 line break assists. His halves partner, the unheralded Sam Williams, in only 9 games, 4 tries, 4 try assists, 3 line breaks and 3 line break assists.
Considering Wighton is the NSW number 6, reigning Dally M and the Raiders highest paid player, his coach should be getting a lot more in the attacking department.
Wighton’s kicking game continues to be off, with Matt Frawley showing in Wighton’s absence what this team can do when they get repeat sets and control the game.
Luckily for the Raiders, they are up against a Dragons team whose 2021 campaign has fallen off the rails since the infamous BBQ. While they welcome back some key players from suspension, they have lost their best player and leader in Ben Hunt.
Guys like Lomax and Ravalawa will provide some strike power out wide, but they have not played much footy in recent months and could struggle if the Raiders turn up with lots of energy.
On my ratings, I have the Raiders about 12 points better here and so no value on offer.
NRL Round 21: Eels v Souths
The Eels were absolutely horrendous last weekend against the Roosters, while Souths continue to punish the weaker teams, demolishing an understrength Dragons lineup.
While I understand why the bookies have set the line where they have and why the money has come for Souths, I really think the Eels are being harshly judged here.
On my ratings, Moses is the Eels second best player by a significant margin (Gutherson is their #1). But with 21 try assists and 20 line break assists, Moses was chosen to be the NSW number 7 for a reason and I think his return is being overlooked by many that are predicting a soli Souths win here.
Not only do they welcome back Moses, But Niukore and Cartwright have been added to the bench, so this looks a lot more like the Eels team that was seen as a genuine Premiership contender a month ago.
Although Souths have been playing great, they are missing some great finishers out wide in the form of Campbell Graham and Alex Johnston, while guys like Knight will be missed on the Souths bench. Tatola and Marshall have not played much footy, so they could struggle for fitness.
All in all, I am surprised the line is so big here and believe the Eels +10.5 offers value.
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