As well as providing his best value bets every week, our NRL guru Steve Green also previews every NRL game for members. Each week on the blog we’ll feature three of his match previews from the eight games. Check out his NRL Round 6 Triple Preview…
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NRL Round 6: Broncos vs Panthers (Thursday)
While backing the Panthers to cover the line is tempting, I cannot ignore my model and it says the Broncos are not as bad as the other stragglers in this competition (Manly, Cowboys and Bulldogs).
For a long period, Broncos were right in the physical contest against Souths and it was only a horrendous kicking game that ruined their chances. Dearden, Turpin and Milford were all responsible for some shocking kicks and this took all the pressure off. After that, the Broncos showed they still have no defensive resolve, and the try to Gagai on half time was what destroyed any fight they had left to win the game.
At home and with Milford likely to be dropped, I do think the Broncos will put up a fight here, but the Panthers are physically at another level to most of the NRL.
Crichton does not look great at 1, and without Api at 9 the Panthers lack a little bit of creativity around the ruck.
But Luai and Cleary will be sure to find plenty of holes and I think they win this one by about 24.
Predicted score Panthers 30 – Broncos 6
NRL Round 6: Knights vs Sharks (Friday)
On Monday I had my predicted teams plugged in and the Knights, at home, deserved to be much shorter. We got them at $2.25 to win against the Sharks this week, and now they are into favourites at most bookies.
Best, J Saf and Mann are all handy inclusions, while the Sharks will be without Dugan and Graham (two of their most experienced players).
Not only are the line ups indicating the Knights will be hard to beat, the sacking of Coach Morris mid-week is also likely to be a distraction. If Morris was sticking around, then I would be worried, as that can be a motivator for the players to come out and play for their outgoing coach (like the Dragons did for Coach Mary last year).
But I think all of these off-field disruptions are not going to do the Sharks any favours… they’re already a team that can be volatile and poorly disciplined at times.
As for the Knights, while the Titans did teach them a lesson, that was something we expected and had bet on accordingly. The Knights were coming off a physical loss to the Dragons and missing a ton of talent. The Titans are a very good attacking side and playing at home, so it was always going to be a tough ask.
The Knights at home will be hard to beat here and with Ponga likely to be even more dangerous this weekend, due to his match fitness, as well as having Mann and Best to work with, I think the Knights win this by about 6 points.
Predicted score Knights 24 – Sharks 18
NRL Round 6: Storm vs Roosters (Friday)
While these two teams typically have thrilling blockbusters, the Roosters look to be a different team in 2021.
Although they nabbed a great win against the Sharks last weekend, the fact that they were down 18-4 at one stage late in the match shows this Roosters team is a fair way off the pace.
With a makeshift 6, 7 and 9, it’s amazing how competitive they have been. Walker is great and Hutchinson is also showing why he was such a highly touted junior. But the loss of Keary, Lam and Friend is likely to be exposed by the Storm, who are playing with a very confident and well-settled line up.
Grant is now back at 9 and he will be better for the run, while Munster and Hughes are now running like a well oiled machine… with Papenhuyzen is the form player in the competition.
The Roosters however, still have a few key strengths they can play towards. Their forward pack is still choc-full of talent, with JWF returning to form last week and the return of Radley providing the Roosters with a much-needed spark in the middle. Crichton has never played better, nor has Lindsay Collins… so if they can play well then Tedesco, Manu, Tupou and the Morris brothers will not waste any chances they are presented with.
Whenever you can get Roosters at +8.5 or over 3.00 head to head, it is always tempting… but away from home and against a Storm team that has demolished all comers in recent games, I think the Storm should be too strong here and win by about a converted try.
Predicted score Storm 22 – Roosters 16
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