Bookies offer a stack of side bets, player bets and other prop markets for all of the major sports. You’ve probably noticed something like 180 markets available… or 250 markets available.
Some punters don’t pay much attention to them. Perhaps they should…and with AFL Specials starting up this week we had a chat with the data scientist who heads up Brett’s Betting Syndicate to explain why.
Brett, you’ve done a lot of sports betting services with Champion Bets… it seems like you cover a hell of a lot! What’s your basic approach to sports betting?
We have our three major sports (AFL, NFL, NBA) that we focus on, and our edge comes from using data science. We’re not old-school handicappers at all… we don’t watch games and think we can get an edge from that. It’s all in the data.
Some of your most successful packages have targeted player bets. Why is that?
We’re not just about player bets. We’ve modelled basically the entire board for every major sport we work on. But we definitely have a focus on prop markets.
The best way to explain that is that we want to focus on markets that aren’t driven by a true market-pricing process. For example, the closing line on the major sports is the combination of the opinions of all of the biggest players in the market. There’s a lot of money in these markets and that’s what ultimately drives the price you need to beat.
That’s not where we want to play here – rather than taking on everybody’s opinion, we want a prop that’s only shaped by one opinion.
That’s what led us to player bets. These side markets aren’t shaped by the market, by volume of money. Bookmakers either have a model for pricing all these markets, or they outsource to a third party.
So all it is, effectively, is our model versus theirs. And we think we have an edge.
The other factor is that – in the grander scheme of things – we’re a relatively small syndicate. We want to grow and the sheer number of player markets available – there are hundreds on every game – allows us to do that quicker, because we can turn our funds over so much quicker.
So would you say the markets are easier to beat?
We’ve definitely had success doing it, across a number of sports. Which makes sense given the market is shaped by a single model. We’re only taking that on, and we’ve done quite well at it.
So what does this mean for members? What do they receive to get involved in these player markets?
AFL Specials is back for this year. Members receive a betting matrix which gives them a number of options for betting. It outlines the player we want to bet on, the type of bet and the side we’re taking, the stake, and the price and availability at a number of bookies… that gives everybody an option (or multiple options) for getting a bet on.