state of origin game 2

State of Origin Game 2 preview from NRL pro punter Steve Green… including predicted score and suggested bet!

The series moves to Sydney and in a must win match, the heavily-favoured NSW team has all the pressure on them. If Queensland lose then they will still get the opportunity to win the decider at home on Wednesday week, so I’m expecting NSW to show a desperation that clearly was not there last week.

On top of incentive, I also think that NSW again has a far better team. Although that on-paper dominance did not translate to a strong on-field performance, Queensland’s baby maroons would do amazing to pull off another win in State Of Origin Game 2.

NSW South Wales

Cordner, Murray and Keary are all out for New South Wales. The first two through injury, however Fittler has selected Walker instead of Keary. I think that Walker will explode this weekend and be the dominant player in the game. Keary had a few moments, but overall he seems to excel within the Roosters structure. Walker however is the kind of ad-lib player that Origin is all about.

When Fittler saw Munster tear the Maroons apart in the second half with his eyes-up footy, I’m sure he wished he gave Walker more time on the field. Cleary should also play a lot better after having an off night. There’s no doubt the young guy is mentally drained after losing the Dally M and the Grand Final within a couple of days…but Fittler keeping the faith with him is important and I think we’ll see him kick well and steer the team around.

In the forwards, I like the promotion of Crichton and Haas to the starting team. Both guys would have started in my team for Game 1. I think Paulo will come on and look to start offloading at the 25-minute mark.

Finally, Nathan Brown and Isaah Yeo are form players that will add plenty of spark and enthusiasm. Once again, Fittler has probably seen the enthusiasm that Queensland’s rookies brought onto the field last Wednesday. Their inclusion should have a similar affect for NSW. Both of these guys are experienced players that will not be overawed by the occasion.

Queensland

As for Queensland, the big change for them is Brimson’s injury. I like what Holmes can provide at 1, but Brimson was fantastic and his energy and explosive speed will be missed. Welch being ruled out is also very big. The Maroons’ ability to match the NSW forwards was partly because of how good the Storm contingent of Welch, Kaufusi and Big Tino played.

Without Welch, Lui will start at prop. While he had a big year for the Raiders, he’ll have to play the game of his life to match someone like Payne Haas. Moe Fotuaika is also getting his debut, with Coen Hess replaced after he an underwhelming impact in Game 1. While both of these guys had good seasons, it’s another yet two players that are going to debut for Queensland this series.

Summary

Picking the outcome in this one is very tough. On my ratings and with the home ground advantage, NSW should win well. But throughout 2020 I have to concede things have been going a bit haywire. Rather than slavishly follow my model, I am applying more discretion to this series. I don’t think NSW showed enough cohesion or passion to justify taking the -9.5 on offer.

However, I do think that this game will see more points scored, with Queensland showing their hand last week with lots of ball movement. And the inclusion of Walker is likely to change the way NSW attack. They will be a lot more direct this week, with Walker’s incisive running game being the key. With Cook and Tedesco also probing around the ruck, I think we’ll see more points scored in this one.

State of Origin Game 2: Predicted score

NSW 26
Queensland 18

State of Origin Game 2: Suggested bet

Bet 2 units on total points over 39.5: currently $1.85 with TopSport

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