state of origin game 3

State of Origin Game 3 preview from NRL pro punter Steve Green… including predicted score and suggested bet.

State of Origin Game 3: Preview

This has been the least interesting Origin series on record. New South Wales have dominated both games and the speed of the games has taken out any of the aggression and tension that had become synonymous with the Origin product.

While NSW have an amazing squad, the gulf between the teams has been exasperated by the fact that Queensland coach Paul Green has had an absolute shocker with some of his team selections.

Finally, he has gotten it close to being right… and with Hunt at 9 and Ponga at 1, the Queensland spine is looking much better.

While the suspension of Fifita and Arrow really hurts the Queensland pack depth, overall this is their strongest team.

Giving the Queenslanders some hope is the fact that the NSW squad has also been disrupted heavily. Cleary and Luai are huge losses, while the injury to Daniel Saifiti should also not be disregarded.

But all eyes will be on the new Blues halves pairing of Moses and Wighton.

While Coach Fittler has barely put a foot wrong this series, I think these selections are wrong. I would have definitely have gone with Walker and Reynolds.

Wighton is in average form, whereas Moses has yet to prove himself in big games and often plays his best games when the Eels are totally in control.

And while the home ground advantage has not proven to be much of a factor so far this series, the shifting of the game from Newcastle to the Gold Coast is another factor that suggests Game 3 may finally deliver an Origin contest worth watching for the 80 minutes.

State of Origin Game 3: Predicted score

NSW 22
Queensland 16

State of Origin Game 3: Betting

While the NSW lineup is not as strong as it has been and I am expecting a less polished attacking display, their outside backs still look like they will far too hard to handle. Addo-Carr, Tommy T, Latrell and Bizza are all absolute metre-eaters. When you throw in the skipper Tedesco, the NSW go-forward should again prove too hard to handle.

However, Queensland has finally realised they need more speed. The inclusion of the Hammer in the centres and Ponga at the back provides a backline that itself will be hard to contain.

Queensland cannot try to grind their way into this match and with Munster, DCE, Gagai, Holmes and Ponga out wide, the Maroons must throw caution to the wind and try to score some points with enterprising attack.

I think NSW will win, but Queensland should keep it close. Only two small plays. With the game a dead rubber, multiple relocations, and some big team changes, it’s a very hard game to price up. So I have chose to have two speculative plays with plenty of upside and small cost. While my predicted score indicates that Queensland at the line may be value, there is too much uncertainty around this match for me to back Queensland at the head start.

Bet: Scores level after normal time $20 with TopSport
Bet: K Ponga Player of the Match $12 with TopSport

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