super bowl betting

The Super Bowl is one of the biggest sporting events on earth. And Super Bowl betting produces some of the biggest markets on earth.

Obviously, the majority of Super Bowl betting is wagered on the two major markets: the point spread (or the ‘line’, as we generally call it), and the total score under / over. Both are enormous markets both in the States and around the world.

You can head to TopSport to get their latest Super Bowl betting lines and prices. Remember… every cent counts!

Super Bowl betting: what does the history look like?

Like our local grand finals, the Super Bowl is no ordinary game. It’s a worldwide event with it all on the line. Whether they like to admit or not… that affects players, coaches and outcomes.

Can that tell us anything?

With Super Bowl betting being a staple of Vegas since the first game back in 1967, we’re lucky enough to have all the history. So we can judge…

You’d expect both major markets – the line (or spread) and the total – to be 50-50 propositions and thus fall more-or-less even. Is this the case?

Super Bowl betting: the history

Year Winner Defeated Line Result Total Result
2020 KC 31 SF 20 KC -1.5 Favorite 53 Under
2019 NE 13 LAR 3 NE -2.5 Favorite 55.5 Under
2018 PHI 41 NE 33 NE -4.5 Underdog 49 Over
2017 NE 34 ATL 28 NE -3 Favorite 57.5 Over
2016 DEN 24 CAR 10 CAR -4.5 Underdog 43 Under
2015 NE 28 SEA 24 SEA -1 Underdog 47.5 Over
2014 SEA 43 DEN 8 DEN -2 Underdog 47.5 Over
2013 BAL 34 SAF 31 SF -4.5 Underdog 48 Over
2012 NYG 21 NE 17 NE -2.5 Underdog 53 Under
2011 GB 31 PIT 25 GB -3 Favorite 45 Over
2010 NO 31 IND 17 IND -5 Underdog 57 Under
2009 PIT 27 ARZ 23 PIT -7 Underdog 46 Over
2008 NG 17 NE 14 NE -12 Underdog 55 Under
2007 IND 29 CHI 17 IND -7 Favorite 47 Under
2006 PIT 21 SEA 10 PIT -4 Favorite 47 Under
2005 NE 24 PHI 21 NE -7 Underdog 46.5 Under
2004 NE 32 CAR 29 NE -7 Underdog 37.5 Over
2003 TB 48 OAK 21 OAK -4 Underdog 44 Over
2002 NE 20 STL 17 STL -14 Underdog 53 Under
2001 BAL 34 NYG 7 BAL -3 Favorite 33 Over
2000 STL 23 TEN 16 STL -7 Push 45 Under
1999 DEN 34 ATL 19 DEN -7.5 Favorite 52.5 Over
1998 DEN 31 GB 24 GB -11 Underdog 49 Over
1997 GB 35 NE 21 GB -14 Push 49 Over
1996 DAL 27 PIT 17 DAL -13.5 Underdog 51 Under
1995 SF 49 SD 26 SF -18.5 Favorite 53.5 Over
1994 DAL 30 BUF 13 DAL -10.5 Favorite 50.5 Under
1993 DAL 52 BUF 17 DAL -6.5 Favorite 44.5 Over
1992 WAS 37 BUF 24 WAS -7 Favorite 49 Over
1991 NYG 20 BUF 19 BUF -7 Underdog 40.5 Under
1990 SF 55 DEN 10 SF -12 Favorite 48 Over
1989 SF 20 CIN 16 SF -7 Underdog 48 Under
1988 WAS 42 DEN 10 DEN -3 Underdog 47 Over
1987 NYG 39 DEN 20 NYG -9.5 Favorite 40 Over
1986 CHI 46 NE 10 CHI -10 Favorite 37.5 Over
1985 SF 38 MIA 16 SF -3.5 Favorite 53.5 Over
1984 LAR 38 WAS 9 WAS -3 Favorite 48 Under
1983 WAS 27 MIA 17 MIA -3 Underdog 36.5 Over
1982 SF 26 CIN 21 SF -1 Favorite 48 Under
1981 OAK 27 PHI 10 PHI -3 Underdog 37.5 Under
1980 PIT 31 LAR 19 PIT -10.5 Favorite 36 Over
1979 PIT 35 DAL 31 PIT -3.5 Favorite 37 Over
1978 DAL 27 DEN 10 DAL -6 Favorite 39 Under
1977 OAK 34 MIN 14 OAK -4 Favorite 38 Over
1976 PIT 21 DAL 17 PIT -7 Underdog 36 Over
1975 PIT 16 MIN 6 PIT -3 Favorite 33 Under
1974 MIA 24 MIN 7 MIA -6.5 Favorite 33 Under
1973 MIA 14 WAS 7 MIA -1 Favorite 33 Under
1972 DAL 24 MIA 3 DAL -6 Favorite 34 Under
1971 BAL 16 DAL 13 BAL -2.5 Favorite 36 Under
1970 KC 23 MIN 7 MIN -12 Underdog 39 Under
1969 NYJ 16  BAL 7 BAL-18 Underdog 40 Under
1968 GB 33 OAK 14 GB -13.5 Favorite 43 Over
1967 GB 35 KAN 10 GB -14 Favorite N/A N/A

Looking at the 54 Super Bowl betting results, we see that the favourite has actually covered 29 times, for a strike rate of 54%. Over the last ten Super Bowls, six of the ten favourites have covered.

Things are even closer in the total market! Across 53 Super Bowl betting markets (there was no total market on the first Super Bowl), the total has been under on 26 occasions and over 27 times. Basically an even split!

So what does this tell us?
  • Perhaps the obvious… Super Bowl major markets are very sharp and extremely hard to beat over the long-run… as you’d expect! This is one of the biggest betting markets on earth: the sum knowledge of millions of bettors and their money.
  • That we probably should be looking elsewhere to find some genuine value on the big game. The bookies offer hundreds of different markets and props. And some of them are pretty weak, carrying a lot less smart money than the major markets. Let’s take a look at how these markets work with our prop betting expert, and find out why they’re much easier to beat. Click here to read on.
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