Tennis Tips: Who, what and when?

What

The package includes selections for all mens tennis, focusing predominantly on ATP events. All bets are in the main Head-to-Head match market offered by all bookies.

How are selections generated?

These selections are generated by an algorithm which utilises many different statistics, but has a particularly strong weighting toward surface-specific data: clay court results for clay court matches, hard court results for hard court matches, etc.

The entire selection and staking approach does not rely on any subjective judgments or gut instinct, rather it operates in a systematic way based purely on statistics.

The model’s rankings of the top-1000 male players is updated daily, and assessed against a feed of the matches over the next 24 hours to calculate the probability of either player winning the match.

The most obvious example is the model giving both player A and player B a 50% chance of winning their upcoming match. That equates to a price of $2, so if the market is similar we simply pass on the match. But if the market has player B at $2.30, then we are betting.

The proprietary pricing method is proven to be more accurate than the market. It has been built and rigorously tested over many years, and is robust across all court surfaces.

What is the winning strike-rate and profitability?

We bet a large range of odds, so strike rate is less important than ROI.

Over the last 18 months we have achieved between 4-6% Profit on Turnover based on live betting results. That PoT is based on using just one bookie as we have automated the entire process. By shopping around amongst other bookies and the exchanges we would expect 6-8% PoT. Anything in that range is fantastic considering the fact we are dealing with quite liquid markets and have many bets each month.

When & Where

Betting will be taking place at least 11 months of the year. We will send the members update directly to your email between 4pm and 5pm AEDT, in a format that is simple and easy to understand.

You should also download our app to get push notifications.

How to use

All bets are on head-to-head match markets and are very simple – there is no editorial or analysis, just the bets and amount to outlay (as the selections and staking are produced directly from the algorithm).

How much

Each bet advised will include a recommended stake in units. The staking plan is proprietary with many facets – for example, it takes into account the level of tournament, stage of tournament, home advantage and price while also being variable based on our perceived edge.

1 unit = 1% of your betting bank, so simply divide the amount of money you have set aside for punting by 100. Eg. if your bank is $10,000 then 1 unit = $100.

Who to bet with

All bookies offer tennis, but Pinnacle, Marathon, Betfair, Matchbook and Bet365 are particularly worthwhile. The use of an odds comparison tool such as Oddschecker, Odds Portal or SportsPunter is recommended to ensure you capture the best available price.

When to bet

Feel free to bet straight away. Results will be graded at the Pinnacle price at the time of release, but you should definitely shop around to find out if there are better odds with other bookies (including the Australian ones), and also the exchanges such as Betfair and Matchbook. There may be instances when prices are cut on bets, however many will bounce back at some stage due to the global nature and high liquidity of the markets.

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If you have any questions regarding anything, we are here to help! You can send us an email at [email protected] or call 1300 500 057.

Sign up for the Tennis Tips here.