There was plenty of excitement with the launch of the new Golf Syndicate last week as it broke the mould of our normal in-house analyst.
For the first time in our 10 year history a fully fledged betting syndicate agreed to take on a limited client base.
But if you want a golf betting package that waits on the elusive big priced winner and moans about near-misses, this is not the membership for you.
We will have a good strike-rate, consistent returns and updates each Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday:
The Golf Syndicate Q&A has plenty of information on their approach to selections and staking, but let’s look at how last week played out:
The first update highlighted 3 bets:
Bet 1 –
Backing Bourdy over Dubuisson as mentioned earlier. Dubuisson has immense talent, but is an enigmatic
character to say the least. His meltdown earlier this season was worrying (youtube to watch him hit himself with his
club). He also changed his clubs this season and has had ongoing physical problems. If things are not going well he
will continue to force it and can be expected to miss the cut this week. Bourdy is the opposite, steady and reliable
but not spectacular. There is no comparison in their form this year. Bourdy simply miles ahead, and his finished top
25 in five of his last 6 starts.
3 Point Win – Bourdy, top French at the USPGA. $1.72 with Betfair, Bet365, Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, Betstar.
Result: This was a 72 hole bet, but with Dubuisson missing the cut we had an early winner.
Jason Day is very short to be top Australian, and is a worthy favourite. However, the value is with Adam
Scott who will find this layout to his liking. Day looked jaded last week in Canada and can be opposed her at the
prices. Scott is as big as 4.5 with Hills and the TAB if you can get on there, but we will record it at 4.00.
0.5 Point Win – Scott to be Top Australian at the USPGA. 4.5 Hills, TAB, 4.0 Ubet, 4.00 Betfair, 4.40 TabTouch
Result: Scott played fairly well, but Jason Day was excellent so we dropped a half unit.
We rate McIlroy ahead of Dustin Johnson this week on the outright but even more so in a tournament match
bet. Make sure you place the bet somewhere where there is not tie, so dead heat rules apply. Rory has not been
putting well but he should relish the tee to green challenge here and the winning score will not be low. At Even
money or better he is a good bet as we expect DJ to find trouble off the tee this week.
1.5 Points Win – McIlroy to beat Dustin Johnson, 72 Hole Match Bet, 2.00, Sportsbet, Hills, Centrebet & others.
Result: McIlroy struggled with his putter, but DJ was far worse so this was another early collect.
Members get plenty of additional analysis and you can see the comprehensive Thursday preview in this PDF. It includes notes on course characteristics, rated prices and players likely to out-perform or under-perform their stroke average due to specific conditions.
As well as a recap of the first round of the PGA, one new bet was added to the strategy and that was on the Women’s British Open:
Woburn used to regularly host this event but is not a true links style. It has not been held here since 1999 which means no course form for this current crop of young stars. We were not sure how things would be set up and conditions are easier than expected.
Mirim Lee shot 10 under par, which is remarkable. She has been priced up this morning at just $3.50. That is even more remarkable and is way too short. Lee actually did something similar at the US Open. But she followed an early 8 under score with three average rounds to fall away. Lots of firms have her at the $3.50 which is no surprise, as the first set of odds are copied round the market.
Lydia Ko never got going and is a long way back on two over, yet is also still short in the betting. The prices of those two set up value elsewhere.
The standout for us is Ariya Jutanugarn, who had three wins in a row earlier this year and has stormed onto the scene aged just 20 (although Ko is only 19!). There are two Jutanugarns so be careful when placing bets. Moriya and Ariya. It is Ariya who is a potential multiple major winner.
She opened with a bogey free 65 and this girl hits the ball a long way compared to most of her competitors. Woburn has some narrow fairways this week but this girl can hit a lovely 2 iron both with a fade and a draw. She has a big advantage in that regard and should make a good challenge here on the weekend. She has posted good finishes in the majors so far this year and is very confident and relaxed.
We make her shorter than Lee, and the $5.50 available is too big by a considerable margin. Our updated prices have her at $3.75.
Suggested bet is:
Ariya Jutanugarn to win the Women’s British Open – 0.5 Units Each Way at $5.50, Sportsbet, Hills, TABTouch, Bet365.
One quarter the odds, top four places.
Result: You may never have heard of Ariya Jutanugarn but you will hear plenty more as she is a very good player and a nice result (win and place) for members .
Members received further analysis of both tournaments, as well as one additional bet:
We like Emiliano Grillo and he should be shorter than 17.00. Very talented and with a great attitude, he has moved to number 37 in the world rankings and will continue to climb. He had a breakthrough year in 2015 with wins on the Web.com tour and the PGA Tour and his form this year has been very good. His style is suited to this course and he can be expected to stick around at the top of the leaderboard. He should be shorter odds.
At 5.00 the place he is a good each way bet.
Take the Sportsbet 5 places if you can get it. I note they have a top 5 place only market and make him just 3.00, yet offer the 5.00 if backing each way.
We will record the bet at 4 places, with is available with many firms.
Our each way bets will be recorded as two bets, one win and one place. Sometimes we will back each way at the fractions, other times we will bet the win and the place only separately. But today it has to be each way at the prevailing odds.
Suggested Bet – Outright PGA Championship Winner – Grillo 0.2 Units Each Way at 17.00, Sportsbet, Bet 365, TopSport.
1/4 the odds 4 places, but take the Sportsbet 5 places if you can get it.
Result: Grillo was never really in contention on the final day so we lost 0.4 units.
There were too many unknowns for us to add to our PGA position and Jutanugarn was trading at $1.55 in the Women’s Open so no further bets were added.
Here was their summary in full:
A good week for us overall with wins in both events that we bet into, and a decent profit.
The weather delay changed the dynamic of the event, and the course also played a lot easier than expected throughout. Jimmy Walker was a good result for the bookies and Jason Day put up a valiant effort in defence of the title.
Grillo was a little disappointing on the weekend but actually played nicely for the most part, he missed a lot of good chances and is someone we will continue to follow. We also like young Englishman Tyrrell Hatton, who is still underestimated. Hideki Matsuyama is hard to catch at the right time, but will win a big event soon.
We were cautious with our bets prior to the tournament and in the outright market, due to uncertainties on the course set up and the weather, but overall recorded a profit of 2.76 units on the event.
WOMEN’S BRITISH OPEN
A nice win for our selection Ariya Jutanugarn, who played the course very well all week and is an immense talent who will win more majors. The odds available after the first round in that event offered good value and we will continue to find occasional bets in the bigger ladies events when liquidity allows. There is a lot of inaccuracy in the pricing, particularly after the first and second rounds.
A nice profit of 2.81 units.
Overall, 5.57 units profit and a good start for members. We will review the bet sizes when the bank increases by 20 per cent and plan to have a really steady set of weekly profits.
There are two events this coming week that we like, and have confidence in. One on the PGA Tour and one on the Senior Tour. Back on Thursday with the early bets and hopefully another winning week.
Hopefully that gives you a good feel for what to expect from the Golf Syndicate.
Memberships are now closed as we have reached capacity. Get in contact if you’d like to join the waiting list.