Footy Betting Market Review

What did the market get right and wrong?

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The footy’s done and dusted for another weekend, with more upsets and betting market chaos across both the AFL and NRL.

We take a look at how the pre-game footy betting market compared to the actual results across the weekend.


It’s the table that shows just what a good job Brendon Bolton and Stewart Dew are doing.

While both Gold Coast and Carlton find themselves well down the AFL ladder, they’re fourth and fifth respectively on our AFL Line Ladder – highlighting just how well both are doing against expectations.

Both clubs have covered the closing line in both of the first two rounds of the season.

The closing line, of course, reflects the collective thoughts of the bookmakers and betting markets, showing both are comfortably outperforming the smart money. Gold Coast in particular have had a surprisingly strong start, beating their line by over 20 points in both matches.

More generally, there’s few surprises at either end of the ladder. Geelong and Brisbane are well and truly in line with the regular ladder, while those struggling – North Melbourne, Essendon and Melbourne – fill the bottom three spots.


No surprises to see the Storm atop our betting market ladder as well after yet another strong start to the season.

Punters who have backed the Storm at the line would have enjoyed the first three weeks.

The surprise packet of 2019 so far has been the Eels, and if not for their capitulation in the final 20 minutes against the Roosters on the weekend, they too would be 3-0 against the market.

At the other end of the spectrum there are nine teams who have a 1-2 record against the spread so far, with no side going 0-3 to start the season.

If you want to rely on a little more than luck on the punt this season, Brett’s AFL Tips is available now.

Years of beating the bookies is set to continue in season 2019 for Brett and his team of data scientists.

Get their premium AFL betting tips now: