Another round is down, so it’s time to re-group from a betting perspective once more.
Both codes have very even looking ladders at the conclusion of round 4 and 5 of the AFL and NRL seasons, respectively, but there are still some teams that are being overrated and underrated by the market.
It took until round 4, but the bookies have finally caught everybody.
There’s no more undefeated teams at the line in the AFL, with Geelong, Gold Coast and Brisbane all losing on the weekend and also failing to cover their lines. Only the Lions were given a head start by the market, getting 5.5 points, but they were blown off the MCG by the Bombers to the tune of 47 points.
The star performers against the betting market include the Bulldogs, who are 3-1 against the line despite sitting 10th on the league ladder, and Carlton, who are also 3-1 against the line despite being yet to register a win and sitting dead last on the league ladder.
For all of Carlton’s supposed woes, they’ve outstripped the market’s expectations three out of four times – missing the other by just five points. The lack of a win would be enormously frustrating, but they are being underestimated by people almost every week and thus may still represent a good betting proposition.
Things are tight in the NRL, with 4th (Manly) sitting at 3-2 and 13th (Canterbury) sitting at 2-3.
The Raiders look to have been this year’s biggest surprise packet so far, with the Tigers not far behind. The reigning premiers are also 4-1, with the market seemingly still underrating them on a consistent basis despite their dominance in recent years.
At the other end of the spectrum, three teams who came into the season with high hopes have let punters down, with the Knights (-19.5), Broncos (-40.5) and Panthers (-44.5) only covering once in their five outings this season. The latter two have been particularly disappointing after starting the season with high hopes.