The 2016 Brownlow Medal seems to be Patrick Dangerfield’s to lose, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found on other bets.

Two award winning statisticians have combined the Nguyen Model (as featured in The Age), Betfair’s Bailey Model and’s Brownlow Predictor to find the best value bets.

Of course Patrick Dangerfield should win the Brownlow Medal.  And at around $1.15 with most bookies, he isn’t great value.  There are however a few other plays to keep you interested.

Sportsbet have an Adelaide ‘most votes without Sloane’ market, and Rory Laird is great value at $3 – the predictor has Laird polling sixteen votes to Eddie Betts’ nine.

If you don’t think back pockets poll votes (apart from Gavin Wanganeen), the Nguyen Model has midfielder Matt Crouch doing well, and he also sits just two votes behind Betts on the Brownlow Predictor.

Lachie Neale is perhaps the only player at Fremantle who can hold his head high after their woeful season.  The young gun is a ball magnet who this year set the record for the most disposals ever in a home and away season.  The Dockers didn’t do well, and we’re certainly not saying Neale will win, but his stats stack up and at $4.75 with Crownbet to finish in the top ten, he represents great value given a lack of players around him to steal votes.

Similarly, we like Stephen Coniglio to finish in the top ten after a fantastic season for GWS. He’s a standout midfielder for the Giants and top four teams almost always have at least one player in the top ten.  Combine this with both the Nguyen Model and Baileys Model liking Coniglio, and he represents great value at $4 in that market.

Even if you don’t like Coniglio, you can still back yourself and take another gun GWS midfielder.

Another market we like is ‘Most votes without Martin‘ at Richmond.  With Trent Cotchin having an average year, Alex Rance is a juicy $4 and he does have a history of polling – even as a key defender.

In the overall ‘Most votes without Dangerfield’ market, we like Dustin Martin at $3.75, but think there is great value in Port Adelaide’s Robbie Gray.  Port also had a poor year, but that can help due to a lack of vote stealing competition from teammates.  He sits at a very attractive $51.

Lastly, at the Sydney Swans, both the Nguyen Model and Bailey Model disagree with the Brownlow Predictor.  They have Dan Hannebery to poll the most votes for the Swans Sydney, and at $2.50 he’s worth a punt.

Good luck and enjoy the AFL’s night of nights.

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