David Carr writes our weekly Melbourne review and today has given us his thoughts on Saturday’s million dollar G1 Blue Diamond Stakes.
The Blue Diamond stakes is the autumn highlight of 2 year old racing in Melbourne and shapes up as a difficult race to assess this year.
The combination of many different form lines and the fact that no entries have raced beyond 1100m makes this an intriguing race. When first assessing the entries it’s difficult to look past Miracles Of Life. She has won 3/3 by a total of 19 combined lengths and drops 1.5kgs on her last win at the same track. So you might be thinking why isn’t she a moral? Well the longest distance she has raced over is 1050m and has to make the step up to 1200m on Saturday.
When assessing her chances of running out a strong 1200m it’s important to consider how you think the race will be run. I am predicting a fairly hot tempo with The Bowler and Shamus Award attempting to hold forward spots from inside draws. Metastasio, Montsegur and Gregers will all roll forward from wide barriers hoping to get across and take up a position. With 5 or more horses going forward you can be confident the speed will be on early.
Miracles Of Life either pushes forward to hold her spot from barrier 1 or she lets the speed go and gets buried on the fence. Not sure I want to be taking $3 – $4 about a filly stepping up in distance and drawn and awkward spot without a big race rider in the saddle. She could be something special and annihilate them but I am prepared to risk her at the current odds.
The second favourite in the race is Guelph who was impressive winning last start and was one of only 6 horses on the entire day to break 34 seconds for the final 600m. She looks suited to a strong 1200m and will be hard to beat if she can overcome barrier 13.
Metastasio is unbeaten and has won both her outings with ease but I am prepared to risk her as more of an 1100m jump and run filly. The other unbeaten filly is Gregers who beat an average field at her only start but she does have David Hayes and Dwayne Dunn in her corner and they have dominated this race of recent years.
Personally I prefer to back colts when both sexes are stepping up to 1200m for the first time, especially in a race that looks like being strongly run. The colts I am interested in backing are Thermal Current, Crack A Roadie and The Bowler.
Thermal Current looks like he will relish the 1200m. Both his starts have been over 1000m and he has hit the line hard. At his first outing he recorded the fastest 600m, 400m and 200m splits of the entire day. Last time out he was severely blocked for a run and couldn’t get a shot at them. He again recorded the fastest final 200m split for the entire day and he was still easing off heels at the 100m. From barrier 6 he should find a nice spot midfield off the rails and unleash a big run off the strong early tempo. Look for him to be hitting the front inside the final 100m.
Crack A Roadie and The Bowler are nice colts who are over the odds and I expect them to show a fair bit of improvement on Saturday. Crack A Roadie looked very promising in the spring and reports are that he has improved. He has Craig Williams on board who is a master at winning big races on roughies. He is a bit of a forgotten horse that could get up at big odds on Saturday.
The Bowler did it tough at his only run and impressed me by the way he fought to the line. They ran 5 lengths above the average early and he was fighting back on the line after being headed early in the straight. Saturday may come too soon for The Bowler but he could be the surprise packet that improves out of sight.
I will be backing Thermal Current and saving on Crack A Roadie and The Bowler at good odds.
Include Miracles Of Life and Guelph in the multiples and quaddies. Box the 5 of them in the Trifecta. Hopefully you have been following my weekly reviews and got some of the $35 on offer about Thermal Current after his first run.
Good luck and enjoy the Blue Diamond.