With the four fantastic days of the Flemington carnival almost upon us it’s a great time to take an in-depth look at the track. flemington-aerial Our analysis is based on the best of the three totes and the on course Starting Price in all Flemington races since 2008. Using that criteria makes our benchmark profit on turnover figure is -7.5% for all runners. So the following tables list the differential to that -7.5% mark. For example a ‘vs. benchmark’ figure of +10 means that group actually made a profit of 2.5%, while -10 vs the benchmark represents a loss on turnover of 17.5%. Let’s start with the best performing barriers (relative to market expectations) but we’ll separate the straight races from those around a bend. You can see that like so many other tracks, punters tend to over-rate the benefit of being ‘drawn well’ and in fact barriers 1-7 lost at twice the rate of barriers 8+. Flem-barriers Favourites performed exceptionally well, yet second favourites were poor so these two numbers are likely to come closer together over time. But outsiders were poor value again and that shouldn’t surprise regular readers. The top six in the betting market performed 3% above the benchmark, whereas horses outside of that top six were 9% worse than the average. flem-sp-rank Some very good hoops were in the group of best performing jockeys (minimum 100 rides): flem-jockeys The list of most profitable trainers (once again minimum 100 runners) features some big stables, but a lesser light heads the table: flem-trainers Home track trainers tended to perform very well: flem-home-track Experience at the track is well accounted for by the market: flem-experience Yet coming off a Flemington run last start is under-valued: flem-ls-track Tactical speed is less important than other tracks such as Moonee Valley which we analysed last week: flem-ls-settled NSW form was exceptionally under-rated by the betting public: flem-ls-state Nadia Horne from Melbourne’s RSN radio wanted to discuss the Flemington track this week and you can listen to our chat below: Good luck David Duffield