Horses for courses – Moonee Valley

With two fantastic Moonee Valley meetings to look forward to this weekend, let’s take a look at the long-term results at this track to assess how well the form holds The following analysis is based on the best of the three totes and the on course Starting Price in all Moonee Valley races since 2008. Using that criteria makes our benchmark profit on turnover figure -10%. So the following tables list the differential to that -10% mark. For example a ‘vs. benchmark’ figure of +10 means that group actually broke even from a punting perspective, while -10 represents a loss on turnover of 20%. Favourites and second favourites performed above expectations, while the favourite/longshot bias is alive and well: mv-sp-rank Inside barriers were the best performing barrier group (relative to market expectations), while middle barriers were clearly overbet. mv-barrier Higher weighted horses were slightly disappointing: mv-weight-rank Big names like Boss, Rodd, Oliver, Nolen, Rawiller and Dunn feature in the best performing jockeys who had at least 100 rides at the Moonee Valley track: mv-trainers The list of most profitable trainers (once again minimum 100 rides) features both larger and mid-level stables: mv-trainer Experience at the track appears to be of only minor importance: mv-starts It’s interesting to note that runners coming off a Moonee Valley night run struggled next time out: mv-ls-track Runners from north of the border exceeded market expectations while SA raiders disappointed: mv-ls-state There are many aspects to doing the form and those stats above are just one tiny piece of the pie, but they can be a good starting point for further research and hopefully they have given you some insights into the unique Moonee Valley track. Good punting David Duffield