The fluctuating form of jockeys is always a great talking point amongst punters. One jockey could almost win on a broomstick this week, while another could supposedly get beaten on the biggest certainty ever.

Punters generally try to validate their arguments just by working from memory to recall recent examples supporting their ‘hot or not’ stance.

Then we have industry websites and media commentators who love to quote winning strike rates, but the problem with using this stat in isolation is that really it’s just one piece of the puzzle. As punters we are not only concerned by whether a jockey has won on 15% or 20% of their rides, we also need to know whether betting on this jockey has made money or not.

So on a monthly basis this year we’re going to review the profitability of NSW and Victorian jockeys. Since a 30 day snapshot is a tiny (and therefore possibly misleading) sample size we will instead look at their performance over the preceding three months.

Let’s get started with the profitability of NSW jockeys in the period November 2012 to January 2013 inclusive. Use -10% Profit on Turnover as the benchmark for below or above average performers.

(Minimum 100 rides metro/country/provincial)

Jockey Rides Wins POT
M Bennett 109 20 53
S Lisnyy 108 12 31
P Robl 155 19 20
H Bowman 125 22 18
R Spokes 145 13 12
L Grace 172 16 11
C O’Brien 101 11 10
G Schofield 174 14 10
S Clipperton 155 10 9
M Bell 111 13 8
C Reith 198 17 7
Y Ichikawa 104 10 7
H Martin 104 10 3
R Thompson 191 15 3
A Gibbons 153 13 3
B Ward 172 13 0
G Ryan 188 17 0
L Henry 131 10 -4
M Travers 156 9 -7
C Schmidt 124 12 -7
J Ford 104 12 -9
K O’Hara 217 9 -11
R Bensley 129 7 -12
T Berry 191 12 -13
B Avdulla 110 10 -14
B Shinn 192 13 -15
S Thurlow 126 7 -17
J McDonald 115 15 -18
J Collett 133 11 -19
J Penza 252 10 -19
K Sweeney 132 10 -22
J Duggan 108 10 -24
G Buckley 250 8 -25
Dale Spriggs 134 10 -28
C Brown 141 12 -30
P Graham 166 10 -30
B Looker 121 7 -37
M Cahill 107 10 -38
N Berry 147 6 -38
N Seymour 117 6 -39
A Allen 111 5 -43
K Nisbet 106 3 -53
M Paget 118 3 -69
Jess Taylor 109 0 -100
All jockeys -10

Amongst the bigger names it was Peter Robl, Hugh Bowman and Glyn Schofield who were the punters pals. At the other end of the scale were those who followed Nathan Berry, Corey Brown and James McDonald.

Now let’s look at their Victorian counterparts:

Jockey Rides Wins POT
J McNeil 133 18 40
D Smith 160 31 35
N McLean 153 19 34
P Mertens 131 18 26
V Duric 177 34 16
D Stackhouse 166 23 14
J Todd 142 12 12
L Meech 129 26 11
B Rawiller 303 67 8
B Evans 102 14 7
B Melham 152 22 7
D Lane 158 20 5
A Mccabe 146 14 3
R Maloney 111 17 0
D Yendall 253 41 -4
C Newitt 171 25 -5
J Noonan 148 17 -6
J Benbow 136 14 -6
C Robertson 236 29 -7
D Gauci 113 10 -8
M Rodd 114 19 -8
D Moor 172 19 -8
G Boss 149 26 -9
S Arnold 120 18 -10
D Thornton 193 16 -12
J Childs 125 11 -15
A Mallyon 169 19 -16
L Currie 154 15 -18
C Schofield 215 23 -21
J Lyon 140 9 -24
I Gundogdu 160 12 -27
J Fry 161 11 -27
L Nolen 143 21 -30
H Coffey 117 10 -33
R Williams 107 4 -35
T Sadler 154 11 -38
P Moloney 128 10 -38
B Knobel 135 8 -39
D Dunn 137 11 -39
Dean Holland 195 13 -43
J Mott 125 11 -44
N Hall 181 12 -51
J Hill 188 10 -57
All jockeys -10

Peter Mertens has been under-rated over the last three months, Vlad Duric continues his fine form since returning to Victoria and punters following Brad Rawiller have done very well. It is interesting to see that backing Glenn Boss has achieved no better than an average return despite quite a few people claiming that he’s in career best form. Any ‘Boss bonus’ has been efficiently factored into the market.

Luke Nolen, Dwayne Dunn and Nick Hall are three high profile hoops who have been very unprofitable for punters to follow over the last 3 months.

Let us know your favourite jockeys to follow or even those you prefer to avoid.
Next week we will look at the punting returns for followers of NSW and Victorian trainers.

Good luck
David Duffield