The fluctuating form of jockeys is always a great talking point amongst punters. One jockey could almost win on a broomstick this week, while another could supposedly get beaten on the biggest certainty ever.
Punters generally try to validate their arguments just by working from memory to recall recent examples supporting their ‘hot or not’ stance.
Then we have industry websites and media commentators who love to quote winning strike rates, but the problem with using this stat in isolation is that really it’s just one piece of the puzzle. As punters we are not only concerned by whether a jockey has won on 15% or 20% of their rides, we also need to know whether betting on this jockey has made money or not.
So on a monthly basis this year we’re going to review the profitability of NSW and Victorian jockeys. Since a 30 day snapshot is a tiny (and therefore possibly misleading) sample size we will instead look at their performance over the preceding three months.
Let’s get started with the profitability of NSW jockeys in the period November 2012 to January 2013 inclusive. Use -10% Profit on Turnover as the benchmark for below or above average performers.
(Minimum 100 rides metro/country/provincial)
Amongst the bigger names it was Peter Robl, Hugh Bowman and Glyn Schofield who were the punters pals. At the other end of the scale were those who followed Nathan Berry, Corey Brown and James McDonald.
Now let’s look at their Victorian counterparts:
Peter Mertens has been under-rated over the last three months, Vlad Duric continues his fine form since returning to Victoria and punters following Brad Rawiller have done very well. It is interesting to see that backing Glenn Boss has achieved no better than an average return despite quite a few people claiming that he’s in career best form. Any ‘Boss bonus’ has been efficiently factored into the market.
Luke Nolen, Dwayne Dunn and Nick Hall are three high profile hoops who have been very unprofitable for punters to follow over the last 3 months.
Let us know your favourite jockeys to follow or even those you prefer to avoid.
Next week we will look at the punting returns for followers of NSW and Victorian trainers.