In this post:
- Melbourne Cup previews
- Cup Day specials
- Derby Day reviews
- Hail and farewell, American Pharoah
- Racing news
……………………………………………………………. Melbourne Cup preview (Andrew Hannan)
These factors are considered annually in this race, and do include the internationals: • Personal best career run in their prior race • Abbreviated autumn campaign of three races or less • 5th up • Have had to have run a race this campaign in Australia • Progressing into the race – form is on a gradual rise Speed Map
As any speed map with two dozen horses present it does look busy on paper, with Big Orange the one likely to push on and try to lead. Prince Of Penzance then has the opportunity if desired like his last start to be in the early battle. Snow Sky will be in the first few also. Am unsure whether Gust Of Wind’s connections intend on pushing forward also like in Caulfield Cup last time. As like every cup there will be horses trapped deep around midfield/off-midfield and the horses drawn the wider gate will likely be the ones to do so. Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. CP clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge. As you can see on our raw market, there is some value present. The public market is expected to change on race day as Fame Game inevitably drifts. Current overlay runners: n10 TRIP TO PARIS (rated $6.78)
Certainly ticks a lot of boxes into this race. Excellent performance in the Caulfield Cup when staying to the inside and working through the line very well. Beat 3rd and the rest of the field quite well. Like international horses that have had starts in Jul/Aug at home. In June he also obviously won Ascot Gold Cup over 4000m. Having a start already in Australia which was also an =PB rating are significantly positive factors into this race. Can win. n15 PREFERMENT (rated $7.71)
Never in the Cox Plate race, stablemate obviously dominated. Efforts prior solid including Turnbull Stakes win here. In the past runners, in particular Efficient & Green Moon for Lloyd Williams, have raced flat in the Cox Plate and bounced back in the Melbourne Cup to win. Those two runners were utter stayers like this entire, unlike a star like Fiorente who was accomplished over shorter trips. Comes into this 5th up with a current dominant jockey/trainer combination this spring. n20 BONDI BEACH (rated $7.93)
The most talented on the UK starts and am shocked at his current price compared to his UK counterparts. Last three starts all rated strongly in his short career thus far. Also have been between 2400-2900m so doubt the 3200m will be an issue. Having runs in late August- mid September beneficial for this. The major query is that he is yet to have a start in Aus for this. Although obviously an overlay am only prepared to have a place ticket on him. n22 THE UNITED STATES (rated $11.82)
Bold effort and super ride by Hugh Bowman to win MV Cup. Bowman comes off for Moreira so doesn’t lose too much there although the Magic Man hasn’t shown anywhere near his best form outside of HK where he is winning over a quarter of his rides. Last start was a PB performance, but was that his peak performance? Carrying the light weight with a cosy run may get away with rating slightly down or similarly and still threatening. n4 OUR IVANHOWE (rated $13.83)
Third up advanced again in the Caulfield Cup when looming up and looking the winner for two strides before the eventual winner raced clear. Is fourth up into this, prefer if he had one more run but no doubt he is fit. Gate is a little worry, likely has to settle further back than desired. Collateral figures in Germany are very strong for this race and if the rain hits the track it will only benefit him. Recommended Bets:
Back the overlays on our market, excluding BONDI BEACH who you can have a place ticket on staked proportionally to a number you’re comfortable with. —- Andrew’s full Melbourne Cup day set (ratings, runner comments, speed maps and staking sheet) is a bargain at $45 and you can sign up here.
Saturday’s Derby Day ratings can be viewed in this PDF
if you aren’t familiar with the format.
Cup preview with a racing trader
Crownbet’s James Glossop tipped Protectionist in this newsletter last year and here is his take on the 2015 edition: How does the overseas form line up and is it a strong year?
International form dominates the market but again it’s near impossible to line up. 20 of 24 horses have raced overseas. The Caulfield Cup gave us a good look at most of the unknowns and there were quite a few eye catching runs. Dominant favourite Fame Game had more flashing lights on it than a Christmas tree in The Caulfield Cup and has been backed pre-post like the number is in the frame. I think we’re all now under the impression the Japanese staying form is the strongest and the only negative I can find is the price. Trip To Paris’ second to Mongolian Khan in The Caulfield Cup was an impressive Australian debut and he will relish the step up to 3200m. The lightly raced English stayer boasts a good record and no doubt will be competitive. Max Dynamite is an interesting one. Trounced the likes of Trip To Paris and Big Orange last start in a group 2 race at York over 3300m. That race was a standout career peak performance and I have a strong query on it repeating anything like that over here in a big field, high pressure race. No doubt Dettori will give it every possibly from gate 2 but looks better suited over the jumps for mine! Bondi Beach is another horse I feel might be under the odds. He is very lightly raced and doesn’t yet have the same credentials as many of his rivals. He seems to have been rushed into the race and gate 18 looks no joy. Old mate Red Cadeaux is back for another shot at the title and why wouldn’t he be?! He’s already had four cracks at the race finishing second on three occasions. I can’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be competitive again. A great horse who you couldn’t begrudge a win. We have him priced $2.20 to finish in the top 10 and that has already attracted the attention of a few punters. If you take Fame Game out of the market the race looks very even and I’m not convinced this year’s edition will be overly strong. Did the barrier draw have much effect on the market?
The barrier draw was conducted on Saturday night and it didn’t have a huge effect on the market. We turned Fame Game in a roll after it drew perfectly in 12. Criterion also drew favourably in 4 and was turned in a roll. Bondi Beach, Excess Knowledge and The Big Orange were drifters after drawing wide. Which runner is your worst Melbourne Cup result?
The punters have settled on Fame Game. The money started coming as soon as we put up the market and there’s no sign of it stopping. Normally you would expect to see differing opinions in such a big race with so many unknowns but at this stage it’s all one way traffic. Are there any fancied runners that are a good result in your book?
Second favourite Trip To Paris has been surprisingly unwanted. Criterion is another good result. What is your best bet in the race?
Fame Game deserves to be favourite but I think its short enough now and I will be looking for some value around it. Preferment has been trained to the minute and is screaming out for both the big track and 3200m. His run was full of merit in The Cox Plate. The way the track played it had no hope. I was also taken by Almoonqith’s Geelong Cup win. David Hayes is flying again and the horse looks to be coming good at the right time. Crownbet are offering a 150% deposit bonus for new accounts and matched bonus bets up to $25 for everyone on the Melbourne Cup if your horse finishes 2nd to 10th. More info here.
Derby Day reviews
Ray Hickson and Todd Burmester have reviewed Saturday’s Flemington and Rosehill meetings including some horses to follow. Check them out here
Hail and farewell, American Pharoah
‘Just as brilliant as advertised’.
Beating the track record by 5 seconds to achieve the Grand Slam is an unbelievable way to go out. ESPN Senior Writer Dana O’Neil put together a great piece on American Pharoah’s swansong yesterday and you can read it as well as view the replay here
Tomorrow’s tips Our best bets package is likely to have a big day tomorrow with bets at Flemington, Randwick, Doomben, Ascot, Morphettville, Muswellbrook and Canberra. Call our office on 1300 500 057 if you have any questions. Good punting David Duffield © Champion Picks – Australia. Disclaimer: Champion Picks does not accept any responsibility for any potential or actual financial losses incurred directly or indirectly via the use of this site.