Race 1 – Morphettville Goes Green-Bm90 – Benchmark 90 – 1950 – 12:15
Top Pick Phantom Brew (NZ) (7)
Quinella Flying Hussler (4)
Value My Ex Mate (1)
Multi Mickiem (3), Halayr Jet (6), Sandhill Chief (2), Sahara Symphony (5)
Phantom Brew C.Little trained visitor who appears placed to a nicety in what appears a much weaker race than recent efforts yet amazingly gets in here on min. Surely should go enormous here! Flying Hussler full credit to Stable who have this bloke flying. Step up to 1950m is the query however is the obvious/clear danger! My Ex Mate 3rd-up rising to ideal 1950m with the claim sees this bloke as the sharp improver. Clear value runner!
Strong tempo engaged here with Harry High Pants, Sahara Symphony, Flying Hussler & Umaluka all most likely putting early pressure into race. This surely must play into the hands of Phantom Brew (main danger Flying Hussler already a query at trip?). Think the opening $3.50 is quite attractive hence deserving of a strong play. Value runner My Ex Mate opened $17 (a clear double overlay). Betting Strategy: Phantom Brew 5 units win, save on Flying Hussler 2 units win, My Ex Mate 1 unit win.
Betting Confidence 85%
Phantom Brew $2.75
Flying Hussler $4.0
My Ex Mate $9.0
Race 3 – Flight Centre Hcp – Open – 1250 – 1:30
Top Pick Gamblin’ Guru (3)
Danger Baligari (7)
Trifecta VIVI Veloce (2)
Multi Storm Approach (6), Stimulatte (5), Hucklebuck (4)
Gamblin’ Guru on face value has been slightly disappointing this prep however excuses can be made on each run. Rise to 1250m here with likely stronger tempo up front on firmer going with race fitness on his side has him a likely sharp improver here. Value! Baligari thought this blokes close-up debut run behind the highly touted Éclair Big Bang was huge. Should only be improved here. VIVI Veloce created a strong impression when last in work culminating in G3 win. Watch for her late.
Suggest Flask, Baligari and Hucklebuck go forward here on a genuine tempo. As mentioned above think Gamblin’ Guru could be the big improver and certainly gets conditions to suit. If able to produce anything like his 2yo form here then think the opening $6 (TAB)is big overs. In saying that showing Baligari healthy respect and must also be supported at current $5. Betting Strategy: Gamblin’ Guru 3 units win, Baligari 3 units win.
Betting Confidence 75%
Gamblin’ Guru $3.50
VIVI Veloce $5.50
Race 5 – Schweppes Hcp (78) – Restricted 78 – 1550 – 2:50
Top Pick Ambrosia (2)
Quinella Little Miss Bourke (1)
Trifecta Magic Tigress (4)
Multi Bellchuca (3), Native Rhythm (5), Clearly Passionate (7), Terrific Flair (8)
Ambrosia D.Jolly trained sprinter who would be fair to say hasn’t enjoyed the best of luck at both recent starts (sat 3 wide t’out last start when still not disgraced). Maps to enjoy soft on-pace run here & hardly meets a bunch of champions here! Little Miss Bourke totally forgiving last weeks run when raced in clearly worse ground (fence). 1st-up run was strong & gets in here great after claim. Clear danger! Magic Tigress big 1st-up run when caught wide t’out. Has won 2nd-up. Quaddie: 2,1,4.
Not a great deal of early pressure engaged here with Clearly Passionate & Ambrosia mapping to get relatively soft on-pace runs with Magic Tigress enjoying nice trail. Think the opening $4.80 (IAS) about Ambrosia reads extremely attractively. Just wont get many better opportunities to break through again in what looks an extremely winnable race. Betting Strategy: Ambrosia 4 units win, saving on Little Miss Bourke ($4.20) 2 units win, value runner Magic Tigress ($15) 1 unit win.
Betting Confidence 80%
Little Miss Bourke $3.80
Magic Tigress $7.50
Race 6 – Sportingbet Hcp (78) – Restricted 78 – 1250 – 3:30
Top Pick Star Of Zena (6)
Danger Katunga (2)
Trifecta Ziggler (9)
Multi Ace Or Joka (1), Value As (7)
Star Of Zena this now 4yo mare was absolutely terrific 1st-up when charging home for 5th beaten just 2.7L behind Wise And Happy. Rattled off by far the fastest final 200m after getting well out of her ground early. Was an ultra impressive 2nd-up winner last campaign! Katunga nice effort 1st-up when didn’t enjoy the best of luck at a vital stage. Has finished in the money 4/6 previous 2nd runs. Ziggler huge query runner who comes into this off smart trial win. Quaddie: 6,2,9.
Value As & Renegade Arrow both map to go forward with Air Comet mapping to enjoy lovely trail. Thought Star Of Zena was clearly one of the best runs to come out of the program when 1st-up. Trial prior to that was also enormous suggesting this mare has come back bigger & stronger than ever. Has opened huge overs at $3.50 (Bet365). In saying that keeping Katunga very safe ($7.50 at Bet 365 again is huge!) Betting Strategy: Star Of Zena 6 units win, Katunga 2 units win.
Betting Confidence: 90%
Star Of Zena $2.20
Race 7 – Toll Express Hcp (86) – Restricted 86 – 1400 – 4:10
Top Pick Don’t Get Excited (4)
Danger Nearest To Pin (5)
Trifecta Juliet’s Princess (USA) (7)
Multi Raki (2), Billy The Brat (3), Orbital Motion (8), Swinging Soldier (9)
Don’t Get Excited from the astute S.Theodore Stable who has come back enormous this prep winning all 3 starts this prep. The major positive here is this appears to be no harder than recent efforts. Nearest To Pin another who is flying this prep. Has come back from off the canvas to win both last 2 starts when appeared beaten on each occasion. Will lead again here. Juliets Princess talented mare on her day however doesn’t make winning a habit. Can she win twice in a row?? Quaddie: 4,5,7.
Suggest Nearest To Pin should again have no problem leading these from On Face Value, Juliet’s Princess and Don’t Get Excited. Have Don’t Get Excited a clear top pick however has opened terribly short ($1.90 is best, we would want around $2.50 to be betting). So looking elsewhere Nearest To Pin ($3.80), Juliet’s Princess ($10) & Raki ($34) appear the likely value. Betting Strategy: Nearest To Pin 3 units win, Juliet’s Princess 1 unit win, Raki 0.5 unit win.
Betting Confidence 80%
Don’t Get Excited $2.50
Nearest To Pin $3.80
Juliet’s Princess $7.50
Race 8 – Boag’s Draught Hcp (72) – Restricted 72 – 1400 – 4:50
Top Pick Skawboard Pressure (11)
Danger Stella Lante (8)
Trifecta Emmooki’s Dash (2)
Multi Sandhill Warrior (5), Beyond Infinity (6), Gauss (10), Smooth General (7)
Skawboard Pressure talented P.Moody visitor ideally placed here in this high weight affair (1.5kg above min). Only previous visit to SA, was a good thing beat behind Road Trippin’ (strong form lines!) Peaks here & rise to 1400m looks perfect. Stella Lante talented mare who appears extremely well graded on best form. Nice effort 1st-up & should only be improved for run. Emmooki’s Dash won with ease against admittedly much inferior class last start. Has ideal rails draw. Quaddie: 11,8,2.
Smooth General, King Usain, Snip ‘n’ Run & Exalted Moment drive forward here early resulting in strong tempo up front. Have a high opinion of the Moody visitor Skawboard Pressure who will be suited by strong tempo/rise to 1400m. Typical of this Stable appears placed to perfection in this grade. Opening $4.20 appeals! Saving on Stella Lante ($4.80), Emmooki’s Dash is huge overs at current $16. Betting Strategy: Skawboard Pressure 5 units win, Stella Lante 2.5 units win, Emmookis Dash 1 unit win.
Betting Confidence: 85%
Skawboard Pressure $3.25
Stella Lante $5.0
Emmooki’s Dash $8.0
Sandhill Warrior $9.50
Beyond Infinity $9.50